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EURUSD Price Well Placed to Rally Ahead of November Lows

EURUSD Price Well Placed to Rally Ahead of November Lows

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

EURUSD price, news and analysis:

  • A reduction in Italian budget concerns is potentially positive for EUR.
  • By contrast, the US-China trade war seems to be worsening ahead of the upcoming G20 summit, potentially weakening USD.

EURUSD price recovery possible

A rally in the EURUSD price after several sessions of losses now seems possible as concerns about the Italian budget ease and US President Donald Trump ramps up the US-China trade war ahead of the G20 summit in Argentina that begins this coming Friday. Here’s what traders need to watch:

  • The Italian budget: the Italian media reported Monday that the country’s budget deficit target could be reduced from a planned 2.4% to 2.2% of GDP and it could even be cut to 2.0%, potentially avoiding a budget clash with the EU and positive for the EURUSD price.
  • That has cut the spread, or difference in yield, between 10-year Italian government bonds and 10-year German Bunds to below three percentage points.

Italy/Germany 10-year yield spread chart, daily timeframe (January 1 – November 27, 2018)

Latest Italy-Germany yield spread chart.

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

  • Italian consumer confidence fell to 114.8 in November, below the predicted 115.9 and also under October’s downwardly revised 116.5. French consumer confidence was weaker than expected too.
  • However, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Monday that the ECB still plans to halt its quantitative easing program, arguing that inflation is set to increase despite slower Eurozone economic growth.
  • The ECB’s policy thinking could be further detailed today when board member Yves Mersch gives a keynote speech in Frankfurt. If he reinforces Draghi’s comments that could lift EURUSD.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (July 29 – November 27, 2018)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG

  • On the flipside, US President Donald Trump told The Wall Street Journal that he expects to proceed with higher tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • That has dampened USD sentiment ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the two-day G20 summit that begins Friday in Buenos Aires.
  • Another speaker this session will be Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida, who will talk as speculation grows that the Fed will raise interest rates more slowly this year than once seemed likely.
  • Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, EURUSD remains in a downtrend but there is support at 1.13 from the August 15 and October 31 lows, and then at the November 12/13 lows at 1.1216 and 1.1222 respectively.

More to read:

Is the Eurozone entering a second debt crisis | Infographic

Using news and events to trade forex

US-China trade war picks up again | Infographic

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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