Gold and Palladium Prices, News and Analysis
- Gold remains rangebound with US rate hikes crimping upside momentum.
- Palladium rallies more than 40% in the last three-months.
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Gold Losing its Shine as Palladium Soars
The gold – palladium spread is close to crossing over in the near-future as the white metal continues to rally hard. Palladium – used mainly in catalytic converters – has benefitted from the automobile industries move away from diesel engines to petrol engines, boosting demand in a market which currently has limited supply. This tightening supply/demand backdrop has seen Palladium garner increased interest from speculative buyers, pushing the price ever higher. This move comes despite fears that the global economy is slowing down and recent German car sales data which showed overall sales down 7.4% in October.
Gold on the other hand continues to find upside momentum difficult with the likelihood of higher US interest rates weighing on the precious metal. The Fed is still expected to increase US rates by another 0.25% in December, despite recent mildly dovish Fed speak, and further hikes are expected in 2019 as Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to cool the US economy.
The Gold/Palladium cross-over highlights different market conditions more than economic divergence. Recent market commentary points to a tight Palladium market with limited liquidity leaving buyers in control of price action. Gold remains stuck in a trading range and needs to break resistance between $1,236/oz. and $1,244/oz to regain upward momentum. Gold currently trades at $1,228/oz.
Gold and Palladium Daily Price Comparison Chart (March 2015 - November 22, 2018)
Chart via Trading View
Gold Positioning: Retail Remain Long
IG Retail Sentiment shows 81.4% of traders are net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, a combination of current sentiment and recent changes suggest that spot Gold may move higher, even though retail remain heavily long.
We are interested in your opinion on Gold, Silver and Palladium. You canshare your thoughts, views or analysis with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.
--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
