GBP Analysis and Talking Points:
- GBP Rises as EU and UK Agree Future Ties
- Challenges Ahead Remain
See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!
GBP Rises as EU and UK Agree Future Ties
GBPUSD rose to session highs, taking out the 1.29 handle after reports had emerged that the EU and UK have agreed on a draft text of political declaration on future EU-UK ties after Brexit. Within the text, the EU and UK had stated their “determination” to replace the backstop in the future, with the EU considering technological solutions to avoid an Irish border. Alongside this, the EU and UK will also commit to build on single customs territory. Going forward, the political declaration will now be sent to the EU27 for their approval at the EU Summit on Sunday, whereby PM May will bring the agreement before the House of Commons for the meaningful vote. Today will see Theresa May make a Brexit statement to parliament at 1430GMT.
Challenges Ahead Remain
While GBP is trading at elevated levels on the back of these latest reports, it will not be long be traders refocus their attention back on the hurdles that Theresa May faces ahead, most notably the meaningful vote. So far, the Prime Minister has garnered little support for her Brexit plans, which has left the government split into several factions. In light of the agreement, as critics appear, GBP gains are likely to be ease.
The meaningful vote is critical for the longer-term direction for GBP, and with chances somewhat slim that the Brexit agreement will be passed through parliament, uncertainty persists and can once again keep the Pound weak as no-deal risks rise, while failure will likely lead to a no-confidence vote in Theresa May
GBPUSD PRICE CHART: 5-Minute Time-Frame (Intraday)
Additional Brexit Analysis
- How does a leadership challenge to a UK Prime Minister work?
- Brexit Effect on Pound and UK Stocks: Impact of Deal or No Deal
TRADING RESOURCES:
- See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!
- Just getting started? See our beginners’ guide for FX traders
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
