News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/VLZQhrQTAf
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/m920Uvmngm https://t.co/yQYtfHf66s
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/Dqq9S9vGvo
China Reduces Holdings of US Treasuries for Fourth Consecutive Month

China Reduces Holdings of US Treasuries for Fourth Consecutive Month

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Total net-flows saw foreign exposure to the US drop by $29 billion in September
  • China and Japan reduced their holdings again, the fourth consecutive reduction by China
  • While the flows were lower than expected, the selling by China does not constitute a development in the trade war

The US Department of the Treasury released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data Friday in which the flows for September were outlined. Total net TIC flows totaled -$29.1 billion versus the expected $108.2 billion. The majority of the outflows were observed in foreign official outflows which totaled $52.7 billion. Conversely, foreign private investors increased their holdings by $21 billion.

Long-term holdings, regarded as the more important metric, increased by $30.8 billion in the month of September. The figure falls short of the expected $62.7 billion and considerably lower than last month’s $131.8 billion. Part of the shortfall originates from reduced holdings by the two largest foreign holders, China and Japan. For the fourth consecutive month, China has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries.

Catch up on the context of economic conflicts like the trade war between the United States and China with “A Brief History of Trade Wars.”

Despite consecutive outflows from China, there is still insufficient evidence to suggest the move is a deliberate action in the trade war. Since May, the reduction amounts to $32 billion for China and $20 billion for Japan. While not insignificant sums, they pale in comparison to the totals held by each central bank. China holds $1.15 trillion, edging out Japan at $1.03 trillion for the top spot.

Learn to trade around news events like today’s monthly TIC data with our Introduction to Forex News Trading guide.

US Dollar Basket (DXY) Price Chart 10-Minute, November 16th (Chart 1)

US Dollar basket price chart, TIC data

The monthly statement had minimal impact on the Dollar, largely due to its release time.

The Dollar was instead driven lower by dovish comments from Fed vice Chair Richard Clarida and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. In a statement Friday afternoon, Harker weighed on rate hike projections saying he is “not convinced a December rate hike is prudent.” The statements resulted in downward pressure on the Dollar basket. The collection of dovish comments will likely alter the fundamental landscape for the Dollar moving forward.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: US-China Trade War Weighs on World’s Largest Shipping Company

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES