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Global Markets Refocus Attention on Trade Wars and Brexit

Global Markets Refocus Attention on Trade Wars and Brexit

2018-11-09 12:15:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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Equity Analysis and News

  • Midterm Election Over, Attention Back on Trade Wars
  • Brexit Headline Risk Increasingly Volatile
  • S&P 500 | Key Fibo Renews Selling
  • FTSE 100 | Return to Trendline Support Back on the Cards

Price

200DMA

RSI

IG Sentiment

Europe

FTSE 100

7092

7413

57

Mixed

DAX

11454

12378

48

Bearish

CAC 40

5085

5344

54

Mixed

FTSE MIB

19189

21826

57

-

US

S&P 500

2792

2761

54

Bullish

DJIA

26074

25080

59

Bullish

Nasdaq 100

7101

7131

50

-

Asia

Nikkei 225

22111

22453

47

-

Shanghai Composite

2598

2989

60

-

ASX 200

5882

6058

49

-

Midterm Election Over, Attention Back on Trade Wars

The Midterm election saw the Republican’s retain the Senate, however, lost the House to the Democrats, increasing the likelihood of a political gridlock. Although, despite the outcome, the trade outlook remains the same with the Trump administration set to reaffirm its tough stance against China. Prior to the midterm election, reports had circulated that Trump had told officials to draft a deal with China, however, immediately after the election, the Trump administration announced it would put duties on Chinese aluminum sheet products, consequently reducing optimism that a trade deal would be possible in the near-term.

Brexit Headline Risk Increasingly Volatile

Brexit newsflow continues to oscillate between deal optimism and cliff edge Brexit. As such, until a tangible deal is made, UK assets are likely to fade optimism. Headline risk remains elevated with market participants looking out for the next Brexit news to dictate price action.

S&P 500 | Key Fibo Renews Selling

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 saw its largest post midterm election bounce since 1982, having closed over 2% higher. However, volumes had been roughly 15% lower than the 20-day average, which in turn suggested that there had been a lack of conviction behind the buying. At the same time, the rise in the cyclical/defensive sector had come to a halt, increasing the possibility of a slight pullback from its recent recovery. On the technical front, history may indeed be repeating itself with the S&P 500 struggling to get above the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from the October sell-off. Back in February, the S&P 500 had also faltered initially at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement before a more pronounced rejection at 76.4%.

How to Trade the S&P 500

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Dec 2017Nov 2018)

Global Markets Refocus Attention on Trade Wars and Brexit

FTSE 100 | Return to Trendline Support Back on the Cards

7200 proved a stretch too far for the FTSE 100 with the index failing to keep the upward momentum going. Support at 7091, which marks the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 low to 2018 high, has stemmed further declines so far. However, as uncertainty over Brexit continuing to cloud the outlook for UK assets, a return to the rising trendline from the 2018 low (6841) seems plausible.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Feb-Nov 2018)

Global Markets Refocus Attention on Trade Wars and Brexit

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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