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US - China Trade War Rhetoric Weighing Further on the Chinese Yuan (CNH)

US - China Trade War Rhetoric Weighing Further on the Chinese Yuan (CNH)

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

US Dollar and Chinese Yuan Talking Points:

The DailyFX Q4USD Forecast is available to download.

A commonly asked question, answered here – What is the Difference Between CNH and CNY?

US – China Trade Relations Remain Fraught

Media sources reported yesterday that US President Donald Trump is likely to place tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports as early as December if the latest round of trade talks fail. The reports - all based on a Bloomberg article - say that the US will place tariffs on the remaining $257 billion of Chinese imports not already subject to tariffs if there are no new developments in the ongoing trade spat. President Trump indicated in mid-September that he would ramp up tariffs if talks fail.

The US dollar pushed higher against the offshore Chinese Yuan and neared the 7.00 level for the first time in nearly two years. This ‘psychological’ level has proved difficult to cross over the recent months, despite the rate weakening sharply over the last few months. USDCNH has weakened ever since trade wars started earlier this year, with the weaker CNH negating some of the effects of US-imposed tariffs.

US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation

We have produced A Brief History of Trade Wars infographic to help with trade war timelines and effects.

USDCNH Weekly Price Chart October 30, 2018

US Dollar Gets the Safe-Haven Bid Again, not Gold

The US dollar remains firm despite of trade war escalations, aided primarily by a supportive monetary policy backdrop and higher US rates. The US Dollar basket (DXY) remains within touching distance of making a new 16-month high with only next week’s mid-term elections likely to temper its rise. On the flip-side, gold is underperforming and is $20 lower than its recent high print made last Friday, October 26. Gold currently trades at $1,223/oz. and may slip further towards 61.8% Fibonacci support at $1,215.4/oz.

Gold Daily Price Chart October 30, 2018

If you are interested in gold, and/or silver, we have produced three new guides to help:

How to Trade Gold, How to Trade Silver and Gold vs Silver Ratio.

Traders may also be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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