News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • ECB's Lagarde - Tells EU Leaders Euro Zone economy recovering to return to pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2022
  • 🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (APR) Actual: 22.33% Expected: 21.7% Previous: 0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-25
  • 🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (APR) Actual: 22.3% Expected: 21.7% Previous: 0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.81%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.72%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AcZYvlrDPz
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 BoE Quarterly Bulletin due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-25
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (APR) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 21.7% Previous: 0.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-25
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/ej8BfvKvhP
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.88% Gold: 0.36% Oil - US Crude: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZMIZgYhtKC
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0kNdpPogmw
  • 🇫🇷 Unemployment Benefit Claims (MAY) Actual: -133.7K Previous: 65.9K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-25
GBPUSD Analysis: Eyeing a Fresh 16-Month Low

GBPUSD Analysis: Eyeing a Fresh 16-Month Low

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • Heavy USD month-end rebalancing to boost USD.
  • UK budget and BoE ‘Super Thursday’ next week muddies Sterling’s outlook.

The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast is available to download.

GBPUSD Continues to Test the Downside

There remains little fundamental or technical reason to buy GBPUSD at the moment and it is more likely that the pair will face fresh headwinds in the days ahead. The Brexit background continues to weigh on the British Pound with talk now that negotiations are stymied within the UK government, a situation that may presage a change of leadership in the coming months. While UK PM Theresa May walked away from her meeting with the 1922 Conservative Committee unscathed, talk that there were in excess of 40 letters of no confidence – 48 are needed to trigger a leadership contest – will continue to reverberate and handcuff the PM.

GBPUSD Heading Lower, Ignores PM May’s Reprieve – October 25.

Ahead next week the UK Autumn budget on Monday will give the Chancellor the opportunity to increase NHS funding – a vote pleaser – although his hands will be tied by the ongoing Brexit stalemate, crimping his ability to end austerity measures. Thursday next week sees the latest Bank of England ‘Super Thursday’ when the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) is released alongside the laest monetary policy decision. Any downgrading of UK growth, and/or inflation expectations will push back UK interest rate hikes even further.

The US dollar is also likely to get a boost today if Citi Month-end FX Hedge Rebalancing data holds true. The model suggests the strongest month-end USD buying since the global financial crisis of 2008.

The daily GBPUSD chart shows that a break of 1.2800 and 1.27856 opens the path to 1.26620. This level may hold, in the short-term at least, but a break and close below here may see the June 21, 2017 swing-low at 1.25891 come into play.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (February – October 26, 2018)

GBPUSD Analysis: Eyeing a Fresh 16-Month Low

IG Client Sentiment data show that retail traders are 77.0% net-long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian set-up. However, recent daily and weekly positional shifts give us a stronger bearish trading bias.

Traders may also be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES