Never miss a story from Justin McQueen

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Justin McQueen

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

GBP Analysis and Talking Points

  • Wage Growth Boosts GBP
  • Employment Report Mixed Overall

See our Q4 GBP forecast to learn what will drive the currency through the quarter.

Wage Growth Boosts GBP

GBPUSD rose to session highs after the latest employment report with UK wages beginning to show some signs of life. The BoE focussed wage components rose above analyst estimates with the ex-bonus figure rising to the highest level since January 2009 at 3.1%. This also backs up recent commentary from BoE Chief Economist Haldane, who stated that wages are a growing source of inflationary pressures and as such will monitor closely. Consequently, this may see BoE hawks increase their calls for a rate rise sooner than what the market expects. BoE rate hike probability implies that a full 25bps hike is priced in by August 2019.

Employment Report Mixed Overall

Overall, the employment report had been somewhat mixed, which in turn had seen GBP retrace its initial spike higher. Employment change saw a surprise drop of 5k, while the claimant count rose above expectations. However, the unemployment rate continued to hover around a 40yr low, suggesting that the labour market remains tight.

Bank of England Rate Hike Probability

GBPUSD Boosted on Highest Wage Growth Since 2009

GBPUSD CHART: 1-Minute Time-Frame (Intra-day)

GBPUSD Boosted on Highest Wage Growth Since 2009

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX