Crude Oil Price Analysis: Risk Premiums Unwind as US Mulls Waivers
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US Consider Waivers on Iranian Oil Sanctions
Brent crude futures are trading with losses of 1.4% shedding over $1 following reports that the Trump administration are actively mulling waivers on Iranian sanctions that it will reimpose next month for countries that are reducing their imports of Iranian oil. A government official added that the administration was in the middle of an internal process of considering waivers called significant reduction exemption. This in turn has seen a slight unwind of the risk premium surrounding the oil market and thus alleviating some fears that the oil prices could be vulnerable to a supply shock.
Rising Oil Supply Keeping a Lid on Prices
Alongside potential waivers on Iranian sanctions, oil supply is seemingly back on the rise with Libya recently boosting oil production to 1.25mbpd (200kbpd more than the September average). Elsewhere, the second largest importer of Iranian oil, India, is planning to purchase 300kbpd of Iranian oil in November. Consequently, rising oil supply has added to the pressure observed in the oil complex this morning.
Oil Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March-October 2018)
Little in the way of notable support until $81.50, which marks the 20DMA, while the rising trendline from the August low also provides from $81.00.
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
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