News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here:
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook!
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps
USD Choppy on Hurricane Impacted NFP, Unemployment Lowest Since 1969

USD Choppy on Hurricane Impacted NFP, Unemployment Lowest Since 1969

2018-10-05 13:08:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst

NFP Analysis and Talking Points

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 134k in September, beating expectations of 185k expected; Prior month revised higher.
  • US Average Hourly Earnings in line
  • US Unemployment Rate drops to lowest level since 1969

See our latest Q4 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency through the quarter.

NFP Report Review

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment expanded by a 134k jobs in September, disappointing expectations of 185k amid the impact from Hurricane Florence. However, the headline figure saw sizeable upward revision to 270k from 201k, while the 2-month net revision had been +87k. The unemployment rate potentially steals the limelight with a drop to 3.7%, reaching the lowest level since 1969, which will be to the delight of Fed officials given that the see NAIRU at 4.5%.

Wage Growth In-Line, Revision Lower

History suggested that last month’s 0.4% average hourly earnings figure would imply a fall for the subsequent month and indeed that was the case with a reading of 0.3%. However, a slight surprise had been the revision lower for the previous month to 0.3% from 0.4%, consequently this may keep inflation concerns at bay for now. Overall, the jobs report does not change the outlook for the Fed this year with a December hike largely a done deal.

Market Response

A choppy reaction seen in the USD following a relatively mixed report. Supportive factors for the US Dollar had been the drop in the unemployment rate (Lowest since Dec 1969), alongside this, there had been a notable revision to the headline. Slightly disappointing factors had been the Fed focussed wage data in which the monthly figure saw a revision lower to 0.3% from 0.4%.

DXY Price Chart 1: 1-minute time frame (Intra-day)

USD Choppy on Hurricane Impacted NFP, Unemployment Lowest Since 1969

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.