MARKET DEVELOPMENT – TRY RESILIENT AFTER SURGING INFLATION, USD LIFTED ON ADP
USD: Expectations for this week’s NFP report have been somewhat downbeat with many suggesting that the impact from Hurricane Florence last month may distort the reading. However, with today’s stellar ADP report which showed the US added 230k (7-month high), suggests that there is an upside risk that the headline NFP figure may print above expectations. That said, the USD rose on the back of the strong report to hover around intra-day highs.
EUR: An initial been had been seen in the currency amid reports that the Italian Government may consider reducing the budget deficit target after 2019. Consequently, this saw an improvement in risk sentiment, however, much of the risks lies with the EU’s response to the budget once it is submitted by October 15th. Elsewhere, the response from Sovereign rating agencies Moody’s and S&P towards the back end of the month also keeps risks tilted to the downside.
TRY: Unsurprisingly, Turkish inflation saw another rise as a depreciating currency and rising oil prices continue to exert upward pressure on consumer prices. However, the weakness in the Lira had been somewhat resilient relative to previous reactions. Alongside this, the Turkish Finance Minister also highlighted that from tomorrow, he will announce a plan in which to tackle rising inflation. Given the reaction in the Turkish Lira, this may imply that the worst could be over for the Lira.
DailyFX Economic Calendar: Wednesday, October 3, 2018 – North American Releases
DailyFX Webinar Calendar:Wednesday, October 3, 2018
IG Client Sentiment: EURUSD Chart of the Day
EURUSD: Data shows 54.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.19 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.1% higher than yesterday and 41.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.8% lower than yesterday and 27.8% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Five Things Traders are Reading
- “DXY Index Sustains Gains as EUR/USD Bounce Fades” byChristopher Vecchio, CFA , Sr. Currency Strategist
- “Trading Outlook for USD Index, EUR/USD, USD/JPY & More”by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
- “Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin: Tight Ranges May Spark Volatility | Webinar”by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
- “S&P 500 and DJIA Maintains Bullish Trajectory, However, Italian Risks Loom” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “Gold and Silver Technical Outlook Remains Uncertain but Improving” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
