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UK Week Ahead: Conservative Conference and Brexit Updates | Webinar

UK Week Ahead: Conservative Conference and Brexit Updates | Webinar

2018-10-01 12:50:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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  • Will the Tory party unite behind PM Theresa May?
  • GBPUSD traders will also be watching the latest US unemployment (NFP) numbers on Friday.

The Brand New DailyFX Fourth Quarter Forecasts include a fresh look at GBP.

IG Sentiment Datashow of traders are 56.3% net-long of GBPUSD, normally a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts give us a mixed outlook for the pair.

Conservative Party Conference and Brexit News Will Drive Sterling

The annual Tory conference may well open fresh party divides over the current Brexit negotiating stance as senior members ready themselves for a potential leadership challenge. Hard Brexiteers still believe that the PM’s Chequers proposal is a non-starter as it cedes too much control to the EU post-Brexit, while the Prime Minister and her supporters continue to defend her negotiating stance. Party speeches will be closely followed by Brussels to try and gauge if the UK’s position has changed or hardened ahead of the EU Summit on October 18-19, the original date set for agreeing a withdrawal treaty.

US economic data takes over in the second half of the week with the monthly US Labor report on Friday the main driver. The market is expecting another 185k jobs to be created with average hourly earnings slipping by 0.1% to 2.8% year-on-year.

GBPUSD remains heavy at the start of the week as the Conservative conference kicks-off and will need a show of party unity, or some positive signs from the EU before it re-tests its recent 1.3300 level again. The first level of resistance appears at 1.30670, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (March– October 1, 2018)

UK Week Ahead: Conservative Conference and Brexit Updates | Webinar

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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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