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CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Analyst

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – CAD SOARS ON NAFTA 2.0 DEAL

CAD: The Canadian Dollar strengthened to a 4-month high against the greenback after the US and Canada reached an agreement on NAFTA (Now known as USMCA). USDCAD briefly trading below 1.28 in reaction to the announcement. Eyes will be on for further gains in the CAD as the BoC look to raise rates later this month with Governor Poloz seemingly giving the greenlight after stating that higher rates are warranted.

GBP: Headline risk remains elevated for the Pound as this was indeed evident after newswire source reports noted that the UK could be willing to compromise over Ireland border issue in order to reach Brexit deal. Consequently, the Pound leaped following the report, however, focus will be on the Tory party conference and based on historical reactions to PM May’s keynote speech at the conference, the Pound has fallen by 1% on average in the following week.

USD: Another reduction in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has kept the Dollar afloat today, with today’s balance sheet unwind leading to the second largest net negative USD liquidity impact at $19bln. Typically, on Fed quantitative tightening days the USD has risen an average 0.3%.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, October 1, 2018 – North American Releases

CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Monday, October 1, 2018

CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment: USDCAD Chart of the Day

CAD Soars on New NAFTA Deal, GBP Leaps on Brexit Report - US Market Open

USDCAD: Data shows 58.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Sep 14 when USDCAD traded near 1.29969; price has moved 1.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 23.5% higher than yesterday and 15.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 29.1% higher than yesterday and 24.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDCAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. UK Week Ahead: Conservative Conference and Brexit Updates | WebinarbyNick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. Weekly CoT Update for USD/JPY, Crude Oil & Other Major Contracts" by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  3. USD Buying on Fed Balance Sheet Unwind Amid 2nd Largest Net Negative Liquidity Impactby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. GBPUSD Could Drop on Tory Party Conference, PMI firms” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  5. EURUSD Sell-Off Continues on Italian Budget Concerns, USD Strength” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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