News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/t34kotPE8R
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/lM1OIJdjhr
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/6qGEVjDlN6
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/HGWZikGQAa
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/2cQ0JgAfh7
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
USD Undecided After Fed Hikes Rates to 2.00%-2.25%, Powell Speech

USD Undecided After Fed Hikes Rates to 2.00%-2.25%, Powell Speech

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Fed Funds futures had the probability of a 25 basis point hike at 99% heading into today’s decision
  • Chairman Powell believes economy is strong and inflation should remain at 2% target in the future
  • Fed officials removed ‘accommodative’ from language regarding rates

Markets have eagerly awaited the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision to drive action this week, and it delivered. Expectedly, Wednesday saw the Fed hike interest rates 25 basis points to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The hike falls in line with the Fed’s ‘gradual and accommodative’ stance they have maintained in recent quarters. Further, Fed Funds futures had the probability of a hike at 99% so markets were relatively unfazed as the decision crossed the wires.

Not much was changed in the minutes of September’s meeting except the Fed’s decision to remove ‘accommodative’ language regarding hikes. Markets initially debated whether the language change was dovish or hawkish.

A more hawkish policy stance would not be wildly unexpected given the economic climate the United States finds itself in. Equities are at record levels along with unemployment. Sentiment of the typical American is also seemingly positive given the recent barrage of strong confidence reports. First with small business confidence hitting 35-year high and then with ISM manufacturing at the highest levels since 2004. Further, a leading indicator in University of Michigan’s consumer confidence report also hit an 18-year high in August. To top it all off, this week saw the Conference Board’s confidence report hit the highest point since 2000.

However, in Chairman Powell’s news conference he discussed the change. “The dropping of accommodative language does not signal a change in policy,” he said. The comment reversed any initial moves in equity and currency markets, sending the Dollar higher as equites retreated. On equities, Mr. Powell said “it’s true that some assets are at the upper end of their historical ranges.” And that “non-financial corporates have a story of leverage there.”

The comments did their part in driving equities lower as the S&P 500 shed gains from the immediate response of markets.

S&P 500 Price Chart 1-Minute, September 26th

USD Undecided After Fed Hikes Rates to 2.00%-2.25%, Powell Speech

US Dollar Basket Price Chart, 1-Minute 9/26 18:00 GMT

USD Undecided After Fed Hikes Rates to 2.00%-2.25%, Powell Speech

On the minute chart, the Dollar initially traded lower. During the news conference, the Dollar gained momentum after clarifying statements and measured remarks from Chairman Powell. On the broader scale the impact on the Dollar was fairly negligible, trading within the week’s range.

US Dollar Basket Price Chart 1 Hour, September 24th – 26th

USD Undecided After Fed Hikes Rates to 2.00%-2.25%, Powell Speech

As the dust settled, the US Dollar saw a fair amount of intraday volatility to remain near opening levels. Traders will now have to look to other important events on the economic calendar to drive price action this week. Tomorrow contains numerous important data releases for the United States, like GDP, so we could see a trend in the Dollar materialize soon despite Wednesday’s undecided Dollar.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Other US Dollar Resources:

  1. US Dollar Tests Resistance at Prior Support Ahead of the Fed by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  1. Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  1. USD Firms Ahead of FOMC Decision, Oil Eases on API Build - US Market Open by Justin McQueen, Analyst

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES