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CAD Bulls Long for NAFTA Deal

CAD Bulls Long for NAFTA Deal

2018-09-14 10:50:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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USDCAD Analysis and News

  • CAD Bulls Longing for NAFTA Deal
  • Canadian Data Supports Case for Higher Rates

CAD Bulls Longing for NAFTA Deal

The largest risk to the outlook for the Canadian Dollar is the outcome regarding NAFTA. With a touted deadline of October 1st, the headline risk for USDCAD is high and will turn likely dictate near term price action for the pair. Recent rhetoric has been somewhat positive with source reports signalling that Canada were willing to provide key concessions in order to reach an agreement, consequently the Loonie has firmed in recent trading sessions.

Canadian Data Supports Case for Higher Rates

Given the firm data out of Canada, the BoC has signalled that their willingness to raise rates in the short term, as such, the current BoC tightening path is unlikely to provide a significant amount of support for the Loonie with expectations already high. However, if indeed a NAFTA agreement is reached this could potetially see markets repirce a steeper rate path from the BoC, particularly after Deputy Governor Wilkins affirmed the BoC’s hawkish stance by discussing whether to remove “gradual approach” to current rate guidance.

BoC Rate Hike Expectations

CAD Bulls Long for NAFTA Deal

On the data front, eyes will be on the upcoming CPI report, in which a a softer figure could cool bets of an aggressive tightening stance and pressure the Loonie.

USDCAD Technical Overview

Resistance 1: 1.3050 (Psychological)

Resistance 2: 1.3115 (23.6% Fibonacci Level)

Resistance 3: 1.3200 (Psychological)

Support 1: 1.2980

Support 2: 1.2950 (38.2% Fibonacci Level)

Support 3: 1.2910 (200DMA)

USDCAD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (January-September 2018)

CAD Bulls Long for NAFTA Deal

Chart by IG

USDCAD ANALYST PICK

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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