News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Outlook: $AUDUSD Unfazed by Falling Westpac Confidence Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/01/20/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Unfazed-by-Falling-Westpac-Confidence.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/uSsC…
  • Japanese Yen Price Analysis: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY Poised to Gain Ground - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-jpy/2021/01/20/Japanese-Yen-Price-Analysis-AUDJPY-EURJPY-Poised-to-Gain-Ground.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $JPY $AUDJPY $EURJPY https://t.co/LUS1GfqGF5
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Business Confidence (Q4) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-20
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.77% Silver: 0.67% Gold: 0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/vqhNULQSZH
  • A Symmetrical Triangle and long-term trendline resistance provide key levels to watch for NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/kgfZ8qZRRz https://t.co/BhpXTXz5Ir
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.14% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.13% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/U975Up5oUh
  • The #HSI looks set to re-challenge the 28,970 resistance. Will it succeed and attempt 30,000 mark today? https://t.co/ujmzRDsByq
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 64.29%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wdG2u51Kl2
  • Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato: - Vaccine schedule can't be fixed before approval - Tokyo area still facing severe Covid situation - BBG $USDJPY
  • The British Pound may continue gaining ground against its haven-associated counterparts in the near term. However, the currency may give up gained ground against the New Zealand Dollar.Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/cIp4BfbsXT https://t.co/VS6g0Z3FKO
USD Showing Signs of Exhaustion, Upside Limited

USD Showing Signs of Exhaustion, Upside Limited

Justin McQueen, Analyst

USD Analysis and Talking Points

  • SpeculatorsCut Back on USD Longs
  • Firm US CPI Needed to Keep the DXY Afloat
  • Trade War Risks Receding

Speculators Cut Back on USD Longs

The rise in the USD index may be somewhat modest at best from these levels with CFTC data showing a reduction in USD long positioning over the past two weeks as speculators shed $2.5bln worth of longs. Alongside this, speculators on the Euro have recently flipped into net long, suggesting that the base may be set for EURUSD for now.

USD Showing Signs of Exhaustion, Upside Limited

Firm US CPI Needed to Keep the DXY Afloat

With tightening by the Federal Reserve priced in by the markets, eyes are on a continued rise in inflation to potentially shift the Fed into a more aggressive stance. However, with yesterday’s PPI report underwhelming expectations and showing the first decline in 18-months, risks for today’s CPI print are tilted to the downside. As such, a dip in inflation could pressure the greenback as markets reign in expectations of a potentially more aggressive tightening path.

Trade War Risks Receding

The risks associated to trade wars remain at the forefront of investors’ minds. However, these risks have receded somewhat given recent reports that the US are to reach out to China for another round of talks, in order to reach an agreement and refrain from implementing further tariffs. Elsewhere, optimism surrounding NAFTA has been by Canada’s efforts to provide concessions on key stumbling blocks to pave the way for a deal. Trade wars have been a factor in the boost for the greenback in recent months and a reduction in trade war risks could see the USD on the backfoot.

USD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (January-September 2018)

USD Showing Signs of Exhaustion, Upside Limited

Chart by IG

Technical Levels

Support 1: 9439 (100DMA)

Support 2: 9400 (Psychological Level)

Support 3: 9330 (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement)

Resistance 1: 9455 (23.6% Fibonacci Retracement)

Resistance 2: 9500 (Psychological)

Resistance 3: 9530 (September high)

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES