We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.18% Silver: 0.00% Gold: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/lgnQTs4F8U
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Tu1NZZUBBo
  • The $USD suddenly seems scarce amid the #coronavirus outbreak. That threatens short-term financing underpinning global supply chains, despite the Fed’s epic efforts. Get your US Dollar market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/D2p2Vl2ORK https://t.co/56Iq8CmJ7Z
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.33% France 40: 1.21% Wall Street: 0.29% US 500: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zusHPHZgFm
  • Ripple IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Ripple since Mar 29 when Ripple traded near 0.16. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Ripple strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/TnhXuofL8C
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/c7YqD7VXqc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.72%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/OukR4dIlJc
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.18% Silver: 0.00% Gold: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/xivz7ptPMn
  • Hey, traders 👋 do you want live AMAS with our analysts, market updates and tools to improve your trading strategy? Join us now on Instagram! 👉 https://t.co/pHGzVMqsC4 https://t.co/EBCYaTLWGi
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.25% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/aM45N7u2eL
Trade Wars to Save Exhausted USD from Correction Lower

Trade Wars to Save Exhausted USD from Correction Lower

2018-09-07 09:45:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

USD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD Rise Exhausted Amid Priced in Fed Tightening
  • Trade Wars: The USD Saviour
  • Crowded USD Long Trade

USD Rise Exhausted Amid Priced in Fed Tightening

While the Non-Farm Payroll release tends to be a relatively volatile event for major asset classes. The importance of this release has somewhat diminished over the past couple of months given the rhetoric from the Fed that another 2 rate hikes will be on the way this year (September and December). As such, this suggests that the any positive effects of this release on the USD is limited at best, which was also evidenced by the recent stellar ISM report. However, components of the NFP report will of course garner attention, most notably the wage growth figures, which remain somewhat subdued, suggesting that there is still some slack within the economy. Although, a significant uptick in wage growth would be needed to provide a new catalyst for USD strength.

Trade Wars: The USD Saviour

Yesterday saw the end of the consultation period on the imposition of a fresh wave of US tariffs on Chinese goods. The amount is touted to be as much as $200bln worth of Chinese goods. Consequently, headline risk surrounding bearish trade war news is elevated which could provide support in the greenback against emerging market currencies. That said, scope for USD softness is limited on trade war headlines.

Crowded USD Long Trade

Net USD long positioning is a somewhat crowded trade with CFTC data showing net longs at $24.691bln. This suggests that further upside in the USD is likely to be modest at best, however, with speculators recently cutting back on their bullish bets ($250mln reduction), the greenback is at risk of further liquidation.

Trade Wars to Save Exhausted USD from Correction Lower

US Dollar Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (February-September 2018)

Trade Wars to Save Exhausted USD from Correction Lower

Chart by IG

Momentum indicators continue to point towards a negative bias, while RSI indicators have also tilted to the downside. Eyes on a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the 2018 low to 2018 high. A break could see USD extend on losses towards the August 28th low.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.