We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @DavidInglesTV: China sold the most U.S. treasuries in 3 years. https://t.co/GcgCbcbnFc https://t.co/JhcCd4C0Ot
  • $TNX: US10YR yield headed lower? Hugging broad downtrend line and so far seems to be finding confluent resistance after another 61.8% Fib retracement of its past bearish leg (similar to June-Sept leg retracement). I’m watching for a break below support around the 1.7 handle. https://t.co/WO19SfT95h
  • Over the past 30 days, #NGN, #GHS, and #EGP have been the best performing African currencies vs. USD with 1.84%, 0.92% and 0.82% spot returns respectively.
  • The $USD may extend its climb versus the Indian Rupee, but can it overturn weakness against the Singapore Dollar? $USDIDR and $USDPHP attempt breaking above resistance once more.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/bCb8Ddcsa5 https://t.co/y5fNCAgIVQ
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.11% Silver: -0.29% Oil - US Crude: -0.74% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hKY2njvg8f
  • Over the past 30 days, #Philippine Peso, #Taiwanese Dollar and the #Polish Zloty have been the best performing Emerging Market currencies vs. #USD with spot returns of 1.47% ,1.15% and 1.11% respectively.
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.38% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.18% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/QXTlqCBQCK
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.32%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.06%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SXpXRMWEnT
  • The #GBP is down -0.05% to -0.5% against all its major counterparts while #AUD is outperforming its peers in the aftermath of the most recent Australian employment data. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/10/17/AUDUSD-Breakout-Higher-in-Focus-as-Australian-Unemployment-Drops.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702
  • Here is my trading video for today: '$EURUSD Advances as Fed-ECB Converge, IMF Warns Over Financial Stability, #Brexit Deal Ahead?' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/10/17/EURUSD-Rises-as-Fed-ECB-Converge-IMF-Warns-Financial-Stability-Brexit-Deal-Ahead.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bullish Oil Signals as Iran's Oil Loadings Drop

Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bullish Oil Signals as Iran's Oil Loadings Drop

2018-08-29 11:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Iran’s Crude Loading set to drop below 70mln barrels, lowest since April 2017
  • Brent Crude Backwardation Returning
  • Beware of DoE for Short Term Move

For a more in-depth analysis on Oil Prices, check out the Q3 Forecast for Oil

Oil prices are a nudge higher this morning, with Brent crude futures back above $76 a barrel, dismissing yesterday’s slightly bearish API report as focus turns to Iran. Reports from WSJ stated that Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports in August are set to drop below 70mln bpd for the first time since April 2017, ahead of the second round of US sanctions on November 4th. This consequently suggests that countries are indeed following the United States demands in regard to reducing Iranian oil imports. However, seasonal factors is also likely to have played a part in the drop in crude loadings, with August typically seeing fewer exports than any other month.

Brent Crude Backwardation Returning?

As markets edge closer to the November 4th deadline, the front end Brent curve contango has been decreasing, pushing the curve towards backwardation, which could see a further corrective move higher in the Brent benchmark. As such, this may see Brent back towards the high 70s as Iranian oil exports feel the bite from looming US sanctions. Alongside this, IEA Chief Birol noted that the oil market will likely tighten towards the year end due to strong demand and uncertainty over production in Venezuela and Iran.

Beware of US inventory data

Yesterday saw a slightly bearish API crude inventory report in which crude stockpiles rose 38k vs. expectations of a drop of 700k. As such, eyes for a short term move in oil will be on today’s DoE crude inventories, which may also show a build following yesterday’s API data. Expectations are for a drop of 690k.

Brent Crude October-November spread

Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bullish Oil Signals as Iran's Oil Loadings Drop

Source: Thomson Reuters

OIL PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (January 2018-August 2018)

Crude Oil Price Analysis: Bullish Oil Signals as Iran's Oil Loadings Drop

Chart by IG

Oil prices have consolidated around the $76.50 mark. Support is situated at $76.05 (23.6% fib of 61.67-80.49 rise). On the upside, the descending trendline from the YTD peak sits at $78.

What Does Current IG Client Positioning Suggest About the Next Move in Crude Oil?

Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.