We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #AUD and #NZD are uniformly up vs #JPY and #CHF which are down indicating a pro risk tilt.
  • Join @IlyaSpivak 's #webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT to prepare for the week ahead in trading the $AUDUSD Register here: https://t.co/sZNWPVRHA0 https://t.co/TLJVgV1iLq
  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: Third-quarter earnings have been beating estimates at a near record pace so far, yet Wall Street analysts are still st…
  • (CORR) •(SGD) presents a unique undertaking for traders •It is guided by the MAS, which manages the exchange rate •Learn the principals of developing an SGD fundamental forecast to trade #USDSGD from Analyst @ddubrovskyFX here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/09/03/The-Singapore-Dollar-and-MAS-What-is-SGD-and-How-to-Trade-it.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • $USD weakness failed to translate into uniform #ASEAN FX strength. The path for a US-China trade deal carries uncertainties. SGD, MYR eye CPI data as IDR looks to a rate cut. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/ggvTHD1hlF https://t.co/JJxpkzzoWq
  • - #USDKRW has broken 8-month rising support; what next? - Weekly chart shows pair is challenging critical 2018 floor - Longer-term outlook suggests bearish reversal is evolving https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/10/22/US-Dollar-Forecast-USDKRW-Challenging-2018-Rising-Support.html?CHID=9&QPID=917705 https://t.co/TBXv3rXWkv
  • • (SGD) presents a unique undertaking for traders •It is guided by the MAS, which manages the exchange rate •Learn the principals of developing an SGD fundamental forecast to trade #USD/SGD from@Danieldubrovsky here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/09/03/The-Singapore-Dollar-and-MAS-What-is-SGD-and-How-to-Trade-it.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Looking at my #USD Average Index, we have a Bullish Harami at the latest bottom as prices sit above key support (1.2796 - 1.2824). This followed a break under key rising support from March with the next upward-sloping channel going back to September 2018 - red area below https://t.co/BBfNAHyK6r
  • Over the past 30 days, #Philippine Peso has been the best performing Asian currencies vs. #USD with +2.04% total-returns while #Indonesian Rupiah has been the worst with -0.08%
  • [CORR] Ahead of Tuesday’s Asia/Pacific session, here are where local stocks closed at on Monday: Topix 1628.60 (+0.41%), Nikkei 225 22548.90 (+0.25%), JPX Nikkei 400 14565.67 (+0.38%)
US Crude Oil Price May Rally Further, Stockpiles and Iran in Focus

US Crude Oil Price May Rally Further, Stockpiles and Iran in Focus

2018-08-22 09:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
Share:

Crude oil price, news and analysis:

  • News of a sharp fall in inventories of US crude oil is giving the crude price a boost.
  • That advance may continue as concerns mount about sanctions on Iran.

Our trading forecasts for Q3 have been published; you can find the oil guide here.

And check out the IG Client Sentiment data to help you trade profitably.

US crude oil inventories drop

The rally in the US crude oil price may continue short term after news that US crude stockpiles fell by 5.2 million barrels in the week to August 17, well above the 1.5 million draw predicted by analysts. The data from the American Petroleum Institute suggest that the official numbers from the US Energy Information Administration, due today, could show a larger decrease than the 2.0 million drop previously forecast.

In addition, worries are mounting about a potential shortfall of Iranian oil from November due to US sanctions.

US Crude Oil Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 1 – August 22, 2018)

Latest US crude oil price chart.

Chart by IG

Technical picture for US crude

As the chart above shows, the US crude oil price has already rallied from a recent low of $63.97 per barrel on August 15 to its current level around $66.27 and that bounce could extend to the 20-day moving average at $66.74 and perhaps to trendline resistance at $67.66.

To the downside, principal support lies at that $63.97 low.

Trader positioning in US crude

Turning to sentiment, retail trader data show 69.2% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.25 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since July 11, when US crude traded near $71.52; the price has moved 7.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.4% lower than yesterday and 6.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.2% higher than yesterday and 5.8% higher from last week.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests US crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long than last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed US crude trading bias.

Latest US crude oil sentiment data.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, trading guides to help you improve your trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. You can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.