Canadian Dollar Price, News and Analysis
- Inflation expected unchanged, but any uptick could seal another rate hike in October.
- Canadian economy continues to grow strongly.
IG Client Sentiment shows retail are 46.3% net-long of USDCAD – a bullish contrarian sentiment indicator.
Canadian Dollar May Receive a Boost on Latest Inflation Report
The Canadian dollar is currently treading water ahead of the July CPI report with the market expecting a 0.1% month-on-month rise and a 2.5% annualized reading, both unchanged from last month’s strong report. Canadian CPI grew at its fastest rate in over six years in June, due to higher energy prices, and another strong reading today will increase pressure on the Bank of Canada to hike rates again, probably at the October meeting. The central bank has already hiked rates by 0.25% twice this year and by a total of four times in the last 12 months. Last week data showed Canadian unemployment falling to 5.8% from a prior 6% while employment grew by 54.1k against expectations of 17K and a prior month’s 31.8k.
USDCAD has remained in a 1.2950 – 1.3200 range over the last month, despite the strength of the US dollar and fears over the NAFTA negotiations. The pair currently trade at 1.3130, just above 23.6% Fibonacci support at 1.3118 and below the July 24 high at 1.3192. An inline or slightly stronger-than-expected reading would seal another 0.25% rate hike and see USDCAD break lower with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2952 the short-term target. A weaker-than-expected reading today would see the July 24 high under pressure.
We have recently released our Q3 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including the Canadian Dollar.
USDCAD Daily Price Chart (January – August 17, 2018)
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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com
Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1
