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Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Rally Possible as Turkish Lira Cools

Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Rally Possible as Turkish Lira Cools

2018-08-14 08:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold Price News and Analysis

  • Gold has lost 12.5% of its value in four months.
  • Downtrend remains but room for a rally exists.

The DailyFX Q3 Gold Forecast is now available to help traders navigate the market.

Gold Price – Downtrend Remains in Place for Now

After breaking noted support yesterday at $1,205/oz. gold touched the March 2017 swing low at $1,195/oz. and is currently trading either side of this level. The sell-off and downtrend that started in April, is being fueled by a strong US dollar complex with higher interest rates pulling investors away from non-interest-bearing assets like gold. The commodity space as a whole is suffering from Chinese Yuan weakness against the US dollar, while the soaring USDTRY rate fuels fears of a contagion overspill from Turkey into other emerging markets.

The latest IG Retail Sentiment Indicatorshows that traders remain 88.2% net-long of the precious metal,a bearish contrarian sentiment indicator.

Gold Daily Price Chart (February 2017 – August 14, 2018)

Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Rally Possible as Turkish Lira Cools

Gold Price – Short-Term Rebound Likely

The one-hour gold chart gives bulls some short-term confidence with a low around $1,192/oz. holding for now. The precious metal currently sits on prior support at $1,195/oz. and the 20-day moving average with the next level of resistance around $1,204/oz. a confluence of the 50-day moving average, prior support and the 200-day moving average at just $1,207/oz. This level also remains below the downtrend seen on the daily chart which cuts across also around $1,207.0z. The RSI indicator has just moved out of oversold territory but remains weak.

If gold breaks back below the $1,192/oz. level and makes a fresh 18-month low, the technical picture changes and the price will likely fall again with $1,180/oz. firmly in view.

Gold Price One Hour Chart (August 8 – 14, 2018)

Gold Price Outlook: Short-Term Rally Possible as Turkish Lira Cools

Are you new to Gold trading or are you looking to improve your trading skill sets? We have recently produced an in-depth primer on How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips.

We are interested in your opinion and trading strategies for Gold – You canshare your thoughts, views or analysis with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.