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EURUSD Analysis: Indecision Before the Next Move

EURUSD Analysis: Indecision Before the Next Move

2018-08-14 12:10:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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EURUSD – Price, Chart and Technical Analysis

  • EURUSD remains weak and rangebound.
  • Fibonacci resistance and oversold market conditions – which one will prevail?

The latest IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows how retail are positioned in EURUSD - 60.7% long - and how daily and weekly changes can affect trading decisions.

The DailyFX Q3 forecasts and analysis of USD and EUR are available to download here.

EURUSD Needs a Stimulus to Break Out

After breaking below 1.1400 at the end of last, EURUSD has remained in a 1.1365-1.1433 range for the last three trading sessions. The bearish sentiment in the pair was boosted by the ongoing strength in USDTRY, prompting fears that European bank exposure to the weak Turkish Lira could cause balance sheet problems going forward. Recent Euro-Zone data and sentiment indicators have generally met expectations, giving the single currency little help, while in the US, data watchers are waiting for the latest retail sales release (Wednesday 12:30 GMT) and the University of Michigan Sentiment report (Friday 14:00 GMT).

DailyFX Real-Time Economic Calendar

Euro-Zone Data Tuesday August 14

EURUSD Analysis: Indecision Before the Next Move

EURUSD Watches Fibonacci Battle RSI Indicator

A look at the daily chart below shows how EURUSD is stuck below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Janaury 2017 – February 2018 rally at 1.1448 which may prove difficult to break through, all things being equal. In the bottom right of the chart, the RSI indicator is in oversold territory which may provide solace for EURUSD bulls. One of the two indicators will eventually brak and the current market indecision will be erased. The last tow candles on the chart highlight this current indecision and tonight’s close may offer more clues for the EURUSD short-term prospects. A break higher targets 1.1540 before the 20-day moving average at 1.15874 while a further move lower should find strong support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.11870.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (February – August 14, 2018)

EURUSD Analysis: Indecision Before the Next Move

If you are new to foreign exchange, or if you would like to update your knowledge base, download our New to FX Guide and our Traits of Successful Traders to help you on your journey.

What’s your opinion on EURUSD? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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