News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • USD/MXN pushes lower towards a critical support level in the midst of continued political uncertainty. Get your #currencies update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Gold Forecast - via @DailyFX “Gold price outlook still hinges on stimulus deal expectations and corresponding swings in real yields.” What will I have my eyes on in the week ahead? Link to Analysis: $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Talks between the EU and UK restarted today and will continue over the weekend as negotiators from both sides battle against the clock. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here:
  • The US Dollar has spent much of October giving back September’s gains. Is there any hope for change? Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here:
Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Gains as US Reinstate Sanctions on Iran, What Next?

Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Gains as US Reinstate Sanctions on Iran, What Next?

2018-08-07 09:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst

Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Crude Oil Prices See Modest Gains as US Renew Iranian Sanctions
  • Oil Supply Loss to be Key Driver for Oil Prices in Near Term

For a more in-depth analysis on Oil Prices, check out the Q3 Forecast for Oil

Trump Administration Reimposes Sanctions on Iran

Today marked the end of a 90-day wind period leading to the US re-imposing the first round of sanctions at 1201EDT against Iran after the US withdrew from the nuclear agreement back in May. These set of sanctions are related to transactions with US Dollar banknotes, trade in precious metals and transactions related to the Iranian Rial and sovereign debt. A second round of sanctions will be imposed on Iran’s oil sales and energy sector after the end of a 180-day wind down period on November 4th.

Crude Oil Gains Marginal at Best

Oil prices are notably firmer following renewed sanctions on Iran, with Brent back above $74/bbl. However, gains so far this morning have been modest at best. One of the reasons is due to the fact that China who is the largest buyer of Iranian oil have agreed to maintain current import levels (700kbpd) instead of listening to US demands to reduce purchases to zero by November. Elsewhere, the EU are looking to protect European companies who do business with Iran by putting in place a blocking statute which has taken effect.

Iranian Oil Supply Loss Will Be Key Driver

Supply loss will be a key driver in oil prices in the near term with many asking the question on how much Iranian oil will be lost before the sanctions in November take effect. Some analysts suggest that the drop in Iranian exports may lead to 600k-1.5mbpd being taken off the market. As such, headline risk will remain high as countries will look to comply with US guidance. As a reminder, back in June, the second largest importer of Iranian oil, India, had asked refiners to prepare for a drastic reduction or zero imports from Iran by November.

OIL PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (February-August 2018)

Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Gains as US Reinstate Sanctions on Iran, What Next?

Chart by IG

Brent crude prices have run into resistance in which the descending trending from the July peak has curbed further upside for now. A break above could see a move towards $75.10. Near-term support is situated at $73.30, which has been defended in the last couple of sessions.

What Does Current IG Client Positioning Suggest About the Next Move in Crude Oil?

Data shows 66.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.95 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jul 11 when Oil - US Crude traded near 7280.5; price has moved 5.8% lower since then. The number of trader’s net-long is 2.7% higher than yesterday and 10.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.2% higher than yesterday and 19.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.