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Gold Price Under Pressure Ahead of Decision on US Interest Rates

Gold Price Under Pressure Ahead of Decision on US Interest Rates

2018-08-01 10:15:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

Gold price chart and analysis:

  • The four-month downtrend in the gold price looks set to continue despite its recent stability.
  • Two hikes in US interest rates are expected this year – another reason for traders to shun it.

Our trading forecasts for Q3 have been published; you can find the gold guide here.

Gold price chart bearish

The price of gold remains in a four-month downward-sloping channel on the daily chart, despite having steadied over the past two weeks, and could lose more ground if the US Federal Reserve strikes a hawkish tone today and reinforces predictions of an increase in US interest rates in September.

Expectations of a second rate rise later this year are adding to the attractions of the USD compared with zero-yielding gold, and a stronger Dollar would likely mean a weaker gold price given the strong inverse price relationship between the currency and the precious metal.

Gold Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 1 – August 1, 2018)

Latest gold price chart.

Chart by IG

As the chart above shows, the gold price has traded sideways since its fall on July 17 and a break through the July 19 low at $1,211.52 would bring the $1,200 level into focus, with trendline support just below there at around $1,195. On the flipside, a break above the July 26 high at $1,235.31 on a dovish Fed would dispel some of the current negativity.

Note too that net-long positions by large speculators have fallen towards zero and, at nearly 49,000 contracts, net-long positioningis now at its lowest in more than a year. Large speculators have not been net-short since 2002.

More to read on gold:

How to trade gold: top gold trading strategies and tips

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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