We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
Trade War Fears to Drag Down Nikkei, Boost JPY – Asia Market Open

Trade War Fears to Drag Down Nikkei, Boost JPY – Asia Market Open

2018-07-31 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

See our 3Q forecasts for the US Dollar, Yen and Equities in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

US Session Developments – USD Gains, Trade War Fears Fall

The US Dollar advanced against its major counterparts during Tuesday’s US trading session. Its rally picked up pace with a combination of better-than-expected local data and a reduction in trade war fears. For the former, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Index was up 6.51% y/y versus 6.40% expected. As for the latter, reports crossed the wires that the US and China will seek to restart talks to defuse a trade war.

Stocks rejoiced as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite rose 0.49% and 0.55% respectively. Anti-risk currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc declined. Keep in mind the former was already battered by a relatively dovish Bank of Japan. USD/JPY had its best single day performance since July 11th, or just about three weeks ago. The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars rose, but gains were somewhat restrained thanks to a stronger greenback.

Current Market Developments – NZD Weaker, Trade War Fears Rise

Wednesday’s Asia/Pacific trading session was already off to a volatile start. First, the New Zealand Dollar edged lower against its major counterparts as a worse-than-expected local jobs report crossed the wires. In the second quarter, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% unexpectedly from 4.4%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings clocked in at 0.2% q/q versus 1.0% estimated. New Zealand two-year government bond yields fell, signaling ebbing hawkish RBNZ monetary policy bets.

Before the markets could fully digest this development, trade war concerns suddenly took a turn for the worst. Reports crossed the wires that the US is going to plan higher tariffs on $200b of Chinese imports. According to a person familiar with the matter, the official announcement should come over the next couple of days.

After rejoicing on earlier developments, S&P 500 futures tumbled. The sentiment-linked New Zealand Dollar, already hindered by the jobs report, fell even further and the Australian Dollar soon followed. Meanwhile, the anti-risk Japanese Yen strengthened. With that in mind, Asia/Pacific benchmark indexes might be heading for a rocky day. This could allow more room for JPY to gain at the expense of AUD and NZD.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

Trade War Fears to Drag Down Nikkei, Boost JPY – Asia Market Open

DailyFX Webinar CalendarCLICK HERE to register (all times in GMT)

Trade War Fears to Drag Down Nikkei, Boost JPY – Asia Market Open

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Trade War Fears to Drag Down Nikkei, Boost JPY – Asia Market Open

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 70.9% of NZD/USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.43 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 22 when NZD/USD traded near 0.7276; price has moved 6.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.0% lower than yesterday and 1.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.9% lower than yesterday and 2.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. NASDAQ Supported by Apple Earnings, Offers Relief for FANG by Peter Hanks, DailyFX Research Team
  2. Upbeat New Zealand Employment Report to Curb NZD/USD Losses by David Song, Currency Analyst
  3. US Dollar Price Action Setups Ahead of FOMC, NFP by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  4. USD/JPY Rate Eyes July-High as BoJ Ramps Up Dovish Forward-Guidanceby David Song, Currency Analyst
  5. GBP/AUD Technical Outlook: Price Testing Major Trend Supportby Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.