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Gold Price Outlook: Bearish Trend Still in Place

Gold Price Outlook: Bearish Trend Still in Place

2018-07-30 11:30:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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Gold price, news and analysis:

  • The price of gold continues to fall and could yet ease further.
  • The US Dollar is firm, safe havens are currently being shunned by investors and physical gold demand is weak.

Our trading forecasts for Q3 have been published; you can find the Gold guide here.

And check out the IG Client Sentiment data to help you trade profitably.

Gold price outlook poor

The price of gold remains in the downward trend in place since mid-April and could yet ease to the $1,200 per ounce level.

It has been hit by the advance in the US Dollar, which has seen the currency’s value against a basket of currencies (DXY) climb from a low of 87.93 on February 15 to above 94 currently. Moreover, likely decisions by the Bank of England to raise UK interest rates this week and the US Federal Reserve to increase them in September are making zero-yielding gold unattractive.

Sentiment in the markets also remains positive, reducing demand for safe havens such as gold, and if Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data make a September hike by the Fed even more likely gold can be expected to drop further.

Gold Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 1 – July 30, 2018)

Latest gold price chart.

Chart by IG

Read more: How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Gold demand weak

The World Gold Council noted earlier this month that that three factors have likely held gold back: a strengthening US Dollar, higher investor threshold for headline risk, and soft physical gold demand.

Moreover, Friday’s Commitments of Traders report by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed another week of large speculators reducing their net-long positons. At nearly 49,000 contracts, net-long positions areat their lowest in more than a year. Large speculators have not been net-short since 2002.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, trading guides to help you improve your trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. You can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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