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EURUSD Price Analysis: EU/US Pact, ECB Groundhog Day

EURUSD Price Analysis: EU/US Pact, ECB Groundhog Day

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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EURUSD – Prices, News and Technical Analysis

  • EU and US agree to work towards zero tariffs.
  • ECB unchanged but press conference may fill in some of the blanks.

The latest IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail are 49.2% long EURUSDand when combined with recent positional changes give us a strong bullish contrarian signal.

The DailyFX Q3 forecasts for and analysis of USD and EUR are available to download here.

EURUSD Picks-up as ECB Meeting Nears

EURUSD currently trades around 1.17250, up around half-a-cent from Wednesday low, driven higher by positive news that the EU and the US would work together to bring non-auto industrial goods tariffs down to zero, reform the WTO while the EU would also buy more US soybeans and LNG. A positive start to negotiations but they still have to be ratified within the EU, while the EU automobile sector is still at risk, something that will continue to worry Germany.

EURUSD move remains muted after the positive news, capped by the latest ECB meeting at 12:45pm and followed by a press conference at 13:30pm. All monetary policy settings will be left unchanged, leaving the single currency at the whim of ECB President Draghi’s question and answer session. President Draghi is expected to be asked for further clarity on last month’s forward guidance that interest rates will remain unchanged ‘at least through the summer of 2019’ and his thoughts on future QE reinvestments. As the summer lull approaches, Draghi is unlikely to say anything contentious or market moving, setting the tone for a quiet month ahead for EURUSD traders.

DailyFX senior currency strategist Chris Vecchio will be covering the ECB Rate Decision Live from 12:30pm.

Looking at the daily EURUSD chart, a two-month trading range around 1.1500 – 1.1800 continues to hold with the current technical set-up looking mildly bullish. The pair trade above the 20- and 50-day moving average and recently broke back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1710. The RSI is mid-range and neutral.

Foundations of Technical Analysis: Trading Event Risk.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (November 2017 – July 26, 2018)

If you are new to foreign exchange, or if you would like to update your knowledge base, download our New to FX Guide and our Traits of Successful Traders to help you on your journey.

What’s your opinion on the EURUSD? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.