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Crude Oil Futures Plunge as Trump Considers SPR Release - US Market Open

Crude Oil Futures Plunge as Trump Considers SPR Release - US Market Open

2018-07-16 13:29:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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MARKET DEVELOPMENTS – CRUDE PRICES PLUNGE AS TRUMP CONSIDERS SPR RELEASE

US equity futures trading relatively flat (DJIA +0.1%, NASDAQ 100 +0.1%, S&P 500 flat) as markets digest a slew of corporate earnings. Energy stocks are the worst performing sector and have weighed on European bourses, most notably the commodity heavy FTSE 100, which is underperforming. Bank names performing well after Deutsche Bank reported they expect their earnings will top consensus.

Crude oil: Sell off observed in oil prices with losses of over 2.5% following reports late Friday that Trump is considering tapping into US emergency stockpiles with a potential release of 5-30mln barrels before the US midterms in November, in order to tackle high gasoline prices. Elsewhere, Mnuchin stated that the US may consider exemptions in certain cases if countries could not reduce Iranian oil purchases to zero to meet sanctions deadline. In turn, this exacerbated the losses in oil prices with WTI crude futures breaking below last week’s lows at $68.35 with the 100DMA at $68.05 now under threat.

USD: The Dollar is a touch softer this morning with losses of 0.2%, having continued the pullback from Friday, after yet another failure to consolidate above the 95 handle. Alongside this, the greenback is also on edge prior to Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony which could highlight concerns over the escalating trade war between the US and China. In terms of US data, retail sales released today were largely in line with expectations, however, materially lower from the prior months.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Monday, July 16, 2018 – North American Releases

Crude Oil Futures Plunge as Trump Considers SPR Release - US Market Open

DailyWebinar Calendar: Monday, July 16, 2018

Crude Oil Futures Plunge as Trump Considers SPR Release - US Market Open

IG Client Sentiment: US Oil Chart of the Day

Crude Oil Futures Plunge as Trump Considers SPR Release - US Market Open

Oil - US Crude: Retail trader data shows 54.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.21 to 1. The number of traders net-long is unchanged than yesterday and 30.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.3% lower than yesterday and 35.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. US Dollar Start Week on Softer Footing after Retail Salesby Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
  2. UK Markets This Week: FTSE, GBPUSD, EURGBP | Webinar” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. Crude Oil Prices Fall as Trump Mulls Tapping Into US Emergency Oil Stockpileby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. CoT Update – Bullish USD Sentiment Remains a Key Theme in Futures Marketby Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. Cardano (ADA), ZCash (ZEC), Stellar (XLM) Soar on Coinbase Announcement” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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