Gold Price Analysis: Support Must Hold to Prime Further Gains
Gold Price News and Analysis
- Gold respecting support for now as political risk returns.
- Renewed US dollar strength may weigh on any rally.
The DailyFX Q3 Gold Forecast is now available to help traders navigate the market.
The latest IG Retail Sentiment Indicatorshows that traders are 88.5% net-long of the precious metal but recent changes in net-longs gives us a mixed spot gold trading bias.
Gold Price Analysis – Trying to Break the Downtrend
Gold is battling the three-month downtrend – started around $1,365/oz. –and may garner some support from the recent escalation in the US-China trade war spat, especially after Washington announced new tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. In addition it seems that US President Donald Trump is spoiling for a fight at the NATO summit over funding commitments with Germany firmly in his sights.
Spot gold however trades marginally lower on the session, along with other safe-haven assets, as a strong US dollar continues to weigh on any risk-off rally. From a technical perspective gold continues to point to lower prices but the recent rebound at the $1,238/oz. level may provide some welcome relief for gold bulls and indicate higher prices in the short-term. If we look at the December 15, 2016 to January 25, 2018 rally from $1,122.75 to $1,366.13, then 50% Fibonacci retracement comes kicks in at $1,244.45/oz., just ahead of last week’s $1,238/oz. and the December 12, 2017 swing low at $1,236/oz.
A break and close below these levels would open the way for further falls to $1,215/oz. – 61.8% retracement – before swing lows at $1,205/oz. and $1,195/oz. hove into view. On the upside, $1,266/oz. and $1,273/oz. look attainable if support holds and risk-off sentiment continues to hold sway.
Speculators still remain long of the precious metal according to the latest COT report, but not as long as they have been – DailyFX analyst Paul Robinson’s latest COT analysis is here – while the IG Sentiment Indicator - see above - also shows retail are long gold.
Gold Spot Price Chart Daily Time Frame (January 2017 – July 11, 2018)
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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.