News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.01%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 67.78%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/H5Xd8swRpB
  • Gold and silver are at risk of extending their slide from monthly highs as the lack of additional fiscal stimulus and rising geopolitical tensions underpin USD. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/sYF5pV9zrE https://t.co/7ISKJ2r1Ea
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.12% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/heYtrV7dTD
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.61% France 40: 0.57% Wall Street: 0.56% US 500: 0.55% Germany 30: 0.53% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/qOR5cU4JZ1
  • AUD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long AUD/JPY for the first time since Sep 16, 2020 11:00 GMT when AUD/JPY traded near 76.69. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ixxjaexZoP
  • The US Dollar is struggling against ASEAN currencies despite weakness in the S&P 500. Capital remains flowing into emerging markets, keeping USD under pressure, could this change? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/nwhy3XhE74 https://t.co/5S6AARA0DA
  • Gold prices is consolidating at US$ 1,868 - its 100-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line. Will it hold above this key support level? https://t.co/o0BM7ABeka
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.23% Gold: -0.07% Silver: -0.97% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/X6JBrsCCnF
  • While @IG_US Client Sentiment is offering a mixed outlook for the S&P 500 and #Dow Jones, these could be at risk to a turn lower based on multiple bearish technical warning signs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/9kYnq6hH1f https://t.co/bLHDVvd44Q
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/p80ihot5KY
EUR Downside Beckons Despite German Coalition Deal

EUR Downside Beckons Despite German Coalition Deal

2018-07-03 09:15:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

EUR price, news and analysis:

- The Euro has made little progress despite an immigration deal between German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU.

- That suggests it could ease further, with trendline support for EURUSD in danger of breaking.

Our trading forecasts for Q3 have just been published; you can find the EUR guide here.

And check out the IG Client Sentiment data to help you trade profitably.

EURUSD price at risk of losses

The Euro remains under downward pressure despite an agreement on immigration between German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and its sister conservative party, Bavaria’s Christian Social Union (CSU). The deal means special transit zones at the German border with Austria, where migrants already registered in other EU countries will be held, and potentially sent back.

The problem for the CDU/CSU is that the third party in the ruling German coalition, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), has yet to approve the agreement – and neither has the Austrian government. The bounce in EURUSD on the deal has therefore been modest and there is a risk that it could reverse downwards.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (April 3 – July 3, 2018)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG

The agreement between the CDU and the CSU has saved the German government for now and avoided a split between the two. That has benefited the Euro but further progress seems unlikely until both the SPD and the Austrians have signaled their approval.

EURUSD at critical support

Meanwhile, from a technical viewpoint, EURUSD is now sitting on support from a rising trendline in place since June 28. However, it has already broken below the 20-day moving average and if the trendline breaks there is a risk of a drop to 1.1511, a level that has supported the pair since late May.

Sentiment data bearish too

As for retail trader sentiment data, the figures show 56.9% of traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.32 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since June 14, when EURUSD traded near 1.17988; the price has moved 1.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.7% higher than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 10.6% lower from last week.

At Daily FX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: analytical and educational webinars hosted several times per day, trading guides to help you improve your trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. You can learn how to trade like an expert by reading our guide to the Traits of Successful Traders.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES