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Oil Trading Forecast - OPEC and Trade Wars Will Dominate Direction

Oil Trading Forecast - OPEC and Trade Wars Will Dominate Direction

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

GDP, Trade Wars and OPEC - News and Talking Points

- OPEC decision will eventually weigh on the price of oil.

- Global growth may miss expectations if trade wars continue to rattle investor sentiment.

The DailyFX Q2 Trading Forecasts for all major currencies, commodities and indices, are availableto download to help you make more informed trading decisions.

Oil Price Likely Capped as Global Growth Concerns Grow

The latest OPEC meeting triggered mixed reactions with the market divided over whether the output increase would help re-balance the market and dampen prices. Friday’s near $3/bbl. jump is gradually being eroded and is currently respecting the downtrend that started at the May 22 high of $80.50/bbl. The OPEC announcement late last week remains ambiguous with the overall increase in oil production somewhere between 700,000/bbl. and 1,000,000/bbl. a day. Further clarity over the coming weeks will help usher oil prices.

However what is clear is that global growth is likely to be crimped in the near future as the trade wars and tariffs dominate the landscape. According to the IMF global growth is expected to grow by 0.1% to 3.9% in 2018, “supported by strong momentum, favorable market sentiment, accommodative financial conditions, and the domestic and international repercussions of expansionary fiscal policy in the United States. The partial recovery in commodity prices should allow conditions in commodity exporters to gradually improve.” A lot of this sentence, from the April World Economic Outlook report, now looks shaky at best.

The recent sell-off in global equity markets is perhaps a better real-time indicator of global GDP concerns with major stock markets dropping sharply from albeit record high levels.

Trade War Background Articles and Primers:

US-China Trade War – A Brief History of Trade Wars From 1900 to Now

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the US Dollar

Brent Crude Nears Resistance

Brent is currently trading just below the downtrend from the May 22 high and is also touching the 20-day moving average, currently at just over $75.0/bbl. If these levels are broken, Fibonacci resistance at $76.05/bbl. comes into play and may prove difficult to break. On the downside a break of $73.30/bbl. would open up $71.08/bbl. before a combination of the 200-day moving average and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement combine ajust under $69.00/bbl.

The latest IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows how retail are positioned on a wide variety of financial markets.

Brent Oil Daily Price Chart (December 2017 – June 26, 2018)

If you are new to oil trading, or if you would like to update your knowledge base, download our New to FX Guide and our Traits of Successful Traders to help you on your journey.

What’s your opinion on Oil? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.