News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
  • There is a ridiculous number of scheduled Fed speeches on the docket next week. Powell specifically will be speaking multiple times including at an ECB hosted forum on central banking (which also has a panel with Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ heads)
  • USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4 - #DXY chart on @TradingView https://t.co/iCnRSo9N4V
  • Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's is due to give its sovereign credit rating update on Germany today ahead of weekend national elections
  • RT @BIS_org: Since the early 1990s, changes in the #MonetaryPolicy stance have affected a rather narrow set of prices – mostly in the servi…
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

Justin McQueen, Strategist

US Market Snapshot via IG: DJIA -0.4%, Nasdaq 100 0.1%, S&P 500 -0.2%

Major Headlines

  • Bank of England Keep Bank Rate at 0.5%, Vote split 6-3 (Prev. 7-2)
  • Italy appoint two Eurosceptics to head finance committee
  • Saudi Arabia sees a 1mln bpd oil increase as a reasonable target.

GBP:Sterling bulls have been provided with some hope following the Bank of England rate decision, after Chief Economist Haldane joined McCafferty and Saunders in voting for a hike. As such, the surprise 6-3 vote split took GBP to fresh intra-day highs with August rate hike bets rising to 45% from 33%.

EUR: Italian political uncertainty returning after Italy appoints two Eurosceptics to head the finance committee, consequently, the Euro is off best levels of the day, falling the underperformance in Italian assets. Although, it is not clear how much influence their roles will have on dictating economic policy, one thing is clear and it’s their critical view on the Euro.

Crude Oil: Brent and WTI crude futures are trading in the red as OPEC near deal to increase output. Reports have suggested that the Saudi Energy Minister views a 1mln bpd oil increase as a good target to work with, while OPEC sources have also indicated that Iran may be open to an agreement. Subsequently, this is likely to keep oil prices on the back foot.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Thursday, June 21, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

DailyWebinar Calendar: Thursday, June 21, 2018

US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD Chart of the Day

US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

GBPUSD: Data shows 72.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.63 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.41803; price has moved 7.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 8.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.4% higher than yesterday and 20.6% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

US AM Digest: GBP Surges on Hawkish BoE, EUR Dips as Italy Appoints Eurosceptics

USDCAD: Data shows 27.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.61 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 22 when USDCAD traded near 1.28776; price has moved 3.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% higher than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.6% lower than yesterday and 39.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias

Five Things Traders are Reading

  1. Central Bank Weekly: British Pound Carves Out Reversal Candles after BOEbyChristopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
  2. Sterling Bulls Offered Hope as Bank of England Raises August Rate Hike Bets” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  3. Gold & Silver Price Forecast – Extended but at Risk of More Lossesby Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  4. EURUSD and Italian Assets Fall as Italian Political Uncertainty Returnsby Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  5. Oil Price Analysis: Downtrend Intact Ahead of OPEC” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.comFollow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES