News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (SEP) Actual: -5 Previous: -6
  • A rough start to the week with the cryptocurrency market a sea of red with losses on either side of -10% a common sight.Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: Gold, Copper Forecast: XAU Eyes FOMC, Evergrande News Sends Copper Flying Link:…
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence (SEP) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -6
  • PBoC liquidity injection + reports that Evergrande will make its next onshore bond payment ($35.88-million on 23 Sept) is bolstering risk appetite here. Yet, there is still no word on the $83.53-million offshore bond payment also due Thursday. Over to you now, Jpow & Co.
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Bank of Japan: - Outlook highly uncertain amid Covid - Asset purchase outline unchanged - Cuts assessment of production - exports, production impacted by supply side constraints - BBG
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision due at 03:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.1%
US-China Trade War and RBA Guidance Sees AUD Plunge to 13-Month Low

US-China Trade War and RBA Guidance Sees AUD Plunge to 13-Month Low

Justin McQueen, Strategist

Australian Dollar Analysis and News

  • US-China Trade War Sees AUD Under Pressure
  • RBA Omits Guidance on Interest Rate Rise

For a more in-depth analysis on AUD, check out our Q2 Forecast

See how retail traders are positioning in AUD as well as other major FX pairs on an intraday basis using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page.

China says US Initiates Trade War

Market sentiment has soured considerably amid the latest escalation in the trade war between the US and China, which followed reports that the US are targeting fresh tariffs on Chinese exports valued at $200bln, while President Trump that 10% tariffs would come into effect if China does not change practices. In the wake of the reports from the US, high beta currencies, most notably the Australian Dollar plummeted to its lowest level since May 2017 given its large exposure to China. Additionally, the decline in industrial metals with iron ore and copper prices falling some 1.5% saw losses in AUD exacerbate (Australia largest exporter of iron ore).

China’s Retaliation to Keep AUD Pressured

China stated that the US have initiated a “trade war” and are not afraid to fight back. As such, China is preparing retaliatory tariffs against the US which will hit one of its most successful export sectors. US sale of oil, gas and coal to China have risen considerably and runs a trade surplus against China, however they now face a possible 25% levy. Headline risk continues to remain high with focus on whether or by how much China will retaliate to $200bln worth of tariffs from the US. Further escalation will likely continue to keep the Australian Dollar pressured.

US China Trade War & a Brief History of Trade Wars – 1900 until Present

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the Dollar

RBA Omits Guidance on Rates

Overnight saw the release of the latest RBA minutes, largely the same from previous minutes. However, a notable development was that the RBA omitted the phrase that the “next move in the cash rate would be up rather than down”. This suggests that heightened uncertainty over trade wars is beginning to have an impact on the RBA’s outlook. Given that the Fed recently upped its rate hike trajectory in the short term (4 vs. Prev. 3 2018 rate hikes), this could see a further widening of the US-Australian bond spread moving in favour of AUD selling, US-AU 10yr bond spread wider by 25bps.

US-China Trade War and RBA Guidance Sees AUD Plunge to 13-Month Low

Source: Thomson Reuters


US-China Trade War and RBA Guidance Sees AUD Plunge to 13-Month Low

Chart by IG

Near term support on the downside situated at 0.7328, which marks the May 2017 low, while a firm break through could push AUDUSD towards the 0.72 handle. Elsewhere, AUDJPY continues to remain very weak and looks at risk of breaking support at the 2018 low situated 80.50.

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.