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Technical Outlook - EURGBP Battling Confluence of Resistance

Technical Outlook - EURGBP Battling Confluence of Resistance

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURGBP Latest News and Analysis

  • Ascending triangle may produce a bullish upside break.
  • Technical indicators likely to keep any advance in check.
  • ECB may turn hawkish but recent weak data may hold intentions in check.

EURGBP Moves Trapped by Technical Backdrop

EURGBP has traded in a narrow range over the last month, held in check by Brexit and today’s ECB policy meeting. The recent Brexit votes, on the House of Lords EU Withdrawal bill amendments, went the way of the UK government but the future EU-UK relationship remains unclear and is likely to weigh on any GBP strength. The EUR has been boosted of late on expectations that the ECB will announce a timetable to end its bond buying program, tightening monetary policy. Recent weak eurozone data however gives ECB President Draghi a reason to put this announcement on hold and maintain maximum central bank flexibility if eurozone hard data continues to falter.

DailyFX senior currency strategist Chris Vecchio will be covering today’s ECB Meeting Live from 11:30 GMT.

The daily EURGBP chart shows that any topside move is currently capped by a mixture of technical indicators. While the ascending triangle would normally signal a break higher, the 200-day moving average around 0.88160 remains a ceiling that needs to be decisively broken if a move higher is to play out. In addition, the Fibonacci retracement of the March-April move comes in at 0.88350, just above the downtrend at 0.88280 and just below the 5-week high of 0.88386. In the event of a clear break, the March 7 high at 0.89680 becomes the primary target.

The latest IG Client Sentiment Report shows that retail remain net-short of EURGBP but recent positional changes give us a mixed trading bias.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart (October 2017 - June 14, 2018)

Technical Outlook - EURGBP Battling Confluence of Resistance

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--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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