News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Get your snapshot update of the of top level exchanges and key index performance from around the globe here:
  • RT @FxWestwater: Japanese Yen Forecast: JPY Crosses Eye BoJ, CPI as Haven Flows Bolster Yen Strength Link: https:/…
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
EURUSD May Fall Sharply in the Months Ahead

EURUSD May Fall Sharply in the Months Ahead

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURUSD News and Talking Points

- By the end of 2019, the Fed may well have hiked another five or six times and the ECB likely just once

- Fibonacci retracement back to EURUSD 1.1200 is on the cards in the longer-term.

The DailyFX Q2 Trading Forecasts for all major currencies, commodities and indices, are now availableto download to help you make more informed trading decisions.

EURUSD Remains Weak with Further Losses Likely in the Coming Months

The ECB gave with one hand and took away a lot more with the other hand at today’s policy announcement, leaving the EUR vulnerable to sharp losses. The QE program is now cut back to EUR15 billion a month from EUR30 billion and is set to end at the end of 2018, although this is not 100% guaranteed. ECB bond buying is also coming up against their self-imposed limits so ending of QE was always a matter of when, not if.

The ECB then undercut the single currency when they said that interest rates will remain unchanged ‘at least through the summer of 2019’, meaning Q3 is the likely first date for a 10bp or 15bp rate hike. And by the end of 2019, it is possible that the Fed will have hiked rates by 0.25% another 5 or 6 times compared to one or maybe two 10bp-15bp rate hikes by the ECB.

The latest IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows retail are 48.7% long EURUSD but recent positional changes give us a bullish trading bias.

The EURUSD chart shows Fibonacci support at 1.1448 ahead of a further drop to 1.1187. As government bond yield differentials between Europe and the US widen further, EURUSD is likely to test the lower support level.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (December 2016 – June 14, 2018)

EURUSD May Fall Sharply in the Months Ahead

If you are new to foreign exchange, or if you would like to update your knowledge base, download our New to FX Guide and our Traits of Successful Traders to help you on your journey.

What’s your opinion on the EURUSD? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.