News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfUNW0y https://t.co/n4NXZUovb0
  • Scoping out next week for trading the market, there are a range of high profile influences including September PMIs, Evergrande and a range of central bank decisions. Top listing on my docket is the #FOMC with my scenarios below. Full analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/09/18/SP-500-and-Dollar-on-the-Hook-for-Breaks-with-Evergrande-Fed-and-September-Trade-Ahead.html https://t.co/ZdoMJS9fp5
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/Q3Yfe6TMLw
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
Australian Dollar Dips On RBA Lowe Comments, Fed Firmly In Focus

Australian Dollar Dips On RBA Lowe Comments, Fed Firmly In Focus

David Cottle, Analyst

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:

  • RBA Governor Lowe said that next rate move probably a rise, but it won’t come soon
  • Markets already knew this, but fact that he gave no hint of disagreement whatever sent AUD/USD down
  • Lowe was upbeat on investment and business activity

Join our analysts for live coverage of all major Australian economic data at the DailyFX Webinars

The Australian Dollar edged lower Wednesday, if not for long, after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe reminded markets of what they already knew.

Speaking in Melbourne, Lowe said that, while the next move in Australian interest rates was still likely to be an increase, such a thing would probably not come for some. Now, rate-futures markets don’t in any case fully price even a quarter percentage point increase in the 1.50%, record-low Official Cash Rate until October 2019. Still, the fact that the RBA seems to agree that a move could be at least that far away saw AUD/USD slip a little.

Australian Dollar Dips On RBA Lowe Comments, Fed Firmly In Focus

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR, 5-MINUTE CHART

The reaction was quite muted though, as it was perhaps always likely to be as markets worldwide look ahead to the US Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy decision. That will come in the early hours of Thursday morning for Asia Pacific markets.

STRONG JOBS, LOW WAGES CONUNDRUM ENDURES

Speaking to the apparent conundrum evident across many developed markets of strong employment growth but modest wage rises, Lowe said that a sustained pickup in consumer prices was likely to require stronger wage gains. He did say that there were “reasonable grounds” to expect just that, however.

The RBA Governor also warned that weak wage growth was diminishing the sense of “shared prosperity” in the country, and said that a return to wage increases of 3% or more would be both possible and desirable. However, with consumer price inflation running at just 1.9%, it seems unlikely that Australian firms will feel obliged to offer such inflation-busting pay settlements much as the RBA might like them to.

Lowe did take pleasure in current elevated levels of investment and business activity, however.

AUSSIE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES AT LAST

Earlier Wednesday came news that Australia’s consumer confidence clocked its first rise for three months in June. The index on the subject from major local lender Westpac rose 0.3% on the month. However, Westpac said that available evidence doesn’t point to a sustainable rise in demand. This won’t be welcome news at the RBA. It forecasts above-trend growth both this year and next, at least partly predicated on a rise in consumption.

Despite a gradual uptick in May and June, AUD/USD remain in the broad daily-chart downtrend channel which has persisted since mid-February and which itself is just a continuation of the slide from January’s highs. An upside test seems to have failed at the highs of June 7.

Australian Dollar Dips On RBA Lowe Comments, Fed Firmly In Focus

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR VS US DOLLAR, DAILY CHART

Should the Fed do as is almost universally expected later and raise interest rates, focus will of course be on how many more times it might do the same this year. In any event the contrast between it and the RBA will remain stark, and suggest strongly that the overall backdrop tends toward further Aussie Dollar weakness.

RESOURCES FOR TRADERS

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES