GBPUSD Analysis and News

  • GBP Falls on Soft Factory Output
  • Eyes on UK Wage and Inflation Figures Later in the Week

For a more in-depth analysis on Sterling, check out the Q2 Forecast for GBP/USD

Weekly GBPUSD Forecast here

GBP Falls as Factory Output Posts Largest Monthly Decline Since October 2012

The Pound fell sharply following a raft of weaker than expected economic data points. UK Manufacturing Output saw its largest monthly fall since October 2012, falling 1.4% vs. expectations of a 0.3% rise amid continued slowing of international demand and a subdued domestic market. Construction Output fell 3.4%, sharpest decline since August 2012, while the UK posted its second widest deficit on record at £14bln. Consequently, this suggests that underlying economic factors remain weak with the data providing evidence that uncertainty from Brexit continues to weigh on business activity and investment. In turn, this will likely push back rate hike odds for an August rate rise seen at a 47% chance.

Key Data Points for Markets to Digest

With data on the soft side to begin the week, participants will also be able to digest the latest employment report tomorrow, where wage growth will be in focus, in which a beat will provide ammo for the BoE hawks. Inflation figures to be released on Wednesday, whereby an upside surprise in the headline amid a surge in energy prices could see GBP firmer, before the week closes out on retail sales.

GBPUSD PRICE CHART: 1-MINUTE TIME FRAME (INTRADAY June 11, 2018)

GBPUSD Plunges as Factory Output Posts Largest Monthly Fall Since Oct'12

Chart by IG

IG Client Positioning shows that the current combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD bearish contrarian trading bias, find out more here

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

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