News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • These prices from @CoinMarketCap - some are wrong, I hope...@DailyFXTeam https://t.co/Tt004WqBl3
  • Fed Officials Could Pencil In Earlier Rate Increase at Meeting - WSJ
  • EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/USD for the first time since Apr 06, 2021 when EUR/USD traded near 1.19. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/USD weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UzcoNl7En4
  • Italy's market watchdog urges regulation for crypto assets
  • 💶 Industrial Production YoY (APR) Actual: 39.3% Expected: 37.4% Previous: 11.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-14
  • Heads Up:💶 Industrial Production YoY (APR) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 37.4% Previous: 10.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-14
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/PHW0HYIT19
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 76.65%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wKiQPgendC
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.52% Silver: -0.66% Gold: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XGsafITVgw
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.01% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.06% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.21% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/I54SaMAkMP
USD Gains Moderate as Rate Expectations Decline, Eyes on PCE and NFP

USD Gains Moderate as Rate Expectations Decline, Eyes on PCE and NFP

Justin McQueen, Analyst

USD Analysis and Talking Points

  • USD Slips as the Prospect of 4 2018 Rate Hikes Decline
  • US Data Remains Key for Monetary Policy Outlook, While Concerns Rise Over Trade Wars

For a more in-depth analysis on the USD, check out the Q2 Forecast for USD

USD Slips as the Prospect of 4 2018 Rate Hikes Decline

The US Dollar has moderated somewhat in recent sessions with rising uncertainty over politics within the Eurozone, most notably Italy, weighing on Fed rate hike expectations for 3 additional rate rises. Subsequently, the greenback and US bond yields have looked toppish with the US 10yr yield back below the psychological 3% level. According to CME FedWatch, rate expectations for 3 additional rate hikes fell to 27% from 38% a week ago.

USD Gains Moderate as Rate Expectations Decline, Eyes on PCE and NFP

Source: CME FedWatch

US Data in Focus

Today will see a deluge of data out of the US at 12:30GMT, most notably the PCE figures, in which the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) is expected to dip to 1.8% from 1.9%. Given the recent comments from the FOMC that they are comfortable with an inflation overshoot, a fall to 1.8% pulling back from the central banks 2% target will likely to a continued easing in market pricing for 3 additional rate hikes, consequently keeping the greenback offered. Elsewhere, eyes will be on wage inflation pressures in tomorrow’s NFP report, which are expected to tick up 0.1ppt in both the monthly and yearly readings, whereby an upside surprise will help support the US Dollar.

Reminder: DailyFX Analyst’s David Song and Paul Robinson will provide live coverage of the NFP report from 12:15GMT, to register, click here

Potential for Trade War Escalation

President Trump is set to impose steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from the EU tomorrow, which could be announced later today after the US and EU failed to produce an alternative deal. In turn, this will likely spark a retaliation by the EU as they look to defend their interests, subsequently leading to an all-out trade war, which as a result would be negative for the global growth.

Overview of the impact from a trade war, click here

USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (August 2017-May 2018)

USD Gains Moderate as Rate Expectations Decline, Eyes on PCE and NFP

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES