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Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

2018-05-22 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Current Market Developments – Sentiment Declines, CHF Stands Tall

News that China plans to cut import tariffs on autos to 15% from 25%, which briefly improved sentiment earlier today, failed to offer a lasting response as Wall Street finished the day in the red. Indeed, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones declined 0.31% and 0.72% respectively. Newswires attributed this to comments from US President Donald Trump who said that he is ‘not really’ pleased with the results of trade talks with China and that his summit with North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un may not work out for June 12.

Crude oil prices tumbled towards the second half of the day as OPEC, Russia and Saudi Arabia were reported mulling relaxing output curbs. Then, Reuters released a report citing unidentified OPEC officials who said that the cartel is planning on raising oil output in June on rising concerns about Venezuela production and a possible Iran supply shortage.

The anti-risk Swiss Franc was arguably the best performing major on Tuesday, by even significantly more so than the similarly-behaving Japanese Yen. Both currencies behaved identically during the first half of the day when there was a weakness in the US Dollar and the Nikkei 225. But then, news that Italy’s 5 Star and League leaders are seeking an EU critic as the Economy Minister really amplified Franc gains. The Euro fell on the news and it appeared as though refuge-seeking flows poured into Swiss markets as a regional haven.

A Look Ahead – AUD May Decline on RBA’s Lowe Speech

Given the deterioration in sentiment during the US session, we shall see if this dynamic echoes into Asian markets. Such an outcome can further strengthen anti-risk currencies like the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, early into the European session, RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe will be speaking at 8:00 GMT. If he continues to reiterate that the central bank is in no rush to raise rates, then the Australian Dollar could fall.

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Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

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Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 50.6% of USD/JPY traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.02 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% lower than yesterday and 8.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 5.6% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/JPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Asia AM Digest: CHF Outpaced JPY, AUD May Fall on RBA Lowe Speech

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. US Dollar: Break or Bounce, Setups on Both Sides by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  2. USD/JPY Susceptible to Larger Pullback as Bullish Series Sputters by David Song, Currency Analyst
  3. Weekly Technical Perspective on the US Dollar by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  4. EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Are the Euro Tides Shifting?by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  5. Brent Crude Oil Jumps Again As Lower-For-Longer View Is Dyingby Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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