News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇧🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) Actual: -3.9 Expected: -3.5% Previous: -11.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-03
  • 🇧🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) Actual: 7.7% Expected: 9% Previous: -9.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-03
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/Lv2ZCpXsop
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.51%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 72.21%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/e2uxWLs0D7
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q3) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 9% Previous: -9.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-03
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q3) due at 12:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -3.5% Previous: -11.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-12-03
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.57% Silver: 0.42% Oil - US Crude: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/nySJaPyQju
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.47% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.07% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/q4ZpXSdMRj
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.03% US 500: -0.06% Wall Street: -0.12% France 40: -0.33% Germany 30: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hVv5Kb5odM
  • RT @nickgutteridge: Multiple EU sources this morning playing down the prospects of a Brexit deal today. Tomorrow is a possibility, they say…
Australian Dollar Rises as US-China Trade War is Put on Hold

Australian Dollar Rises as US-China Trade War is Put on Hold

2018-05-21 10:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

AUD Analysis and News

  • AUD finds support over reduced fears of a US-China trade war.
  • AUDNZD remains on course to a make a test for 1.10.

For a more in-depth analysis on the Australian Dollar, check out the Q2 Forecast for AUD

Impact of Trade Wars click here

Reduced Trade War Risk Lifts AUD

The Australian Dollar received renewed support after the US and China appeared willing to hold back on initial trade tariffs having signaled that a possible trade deal may come to fruition. China had agreed to purchase more US goods as an effort to avoid a trade war, however refused to commit to US demands of reducing their trade surplus by $200bln. The US shared their willingness to avert trade tensions by placing on hold $150bln of tariffs on China imports and previously announced Chinese steel and aluminum tariffs.

This development reduces the risk of softening global demand on the back of potentially lower industrial output from China and therefore supports the Australian Dollar given its large exposure to the nation. In turn, this reaffirms the view for AUDNZD to make a push towards the 1.10 handle having reclaimed 1.09, which is could lead to AUDUSD consolidating above 0.7500.

Impact of Ease Trade Tensions on RBA Outlook.

In the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP), the RBA stated that a significant escalation in trade protectionism could derail global economic expansion. As such, this reduction in trade tensions lowers the downside risks towards Australia’s economy and provided the US and China reach a trade agreement, this could provide greater certainty for the RBA to assume that it will be soon appropriate to tighten monetary policy.

Although, it is unlikely that the RBA will raise rates this year, given that a hike is not fully priced in until mid-2019, risks are somewhat tilted to the upside for earlier (Q1 19) than expected monetary tightening. However, this largely remains dependent on whether inflation pressures (wage growth + inflation) are rising within the economy.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (October 2017-May 2018)

Australian Dollar Rises as US-China Trade War is Put on Hold

Chart by IG

Australian Dollar Technical Levels

AUDUSD continues to consolidate above the psychological 0.7500, which will continue to act as support. The pair eying the May high at 0.7568, whereby a close above there could suggest further gains for the Aussie is on the cards, which may test the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at 0.7583. Ahead, resistance sits at 0.7642 which represents the March low.

According to IG Sentiment, AUDUSD positioning shows that 66.5% of traders are net long, for more information of client positioning, click here

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES