News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/EzdjTZEbx2
  • The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and AUD/USD could be at risk of extending losses as retail investors increase upside exposure. What are key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/ivQmFUTGdU https://t.co/KuIoM7g9E3
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/FBT1eSZdjF
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/LRL1iD3JDt
  • Even though the Australian Dollar lost some ground this week, support levels held. Bearish developments are brewing in $AUDUSD and $AUDJPY but remain unconfirmed. What else does #AUD face ahead technically? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/24/Australian-Dollar-Technical-Forecast-AUDUSD-AUDJPY-EURAUD-GBPAUD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/0gHyXW1vHh
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/LjEjTexrCg https://t.co/9qcanKW0uT
  • Third wave? We haven’t beaten the first wave. Until the virus is under control, the US economy won’t be able to properly heal, plain & simple. The lack of a competent response saps courage. Defeat the virus, then get people back to work. In that order. https://t.co/8R8IyTZejM
  • The British Pound may fall if EU and UK negotiators fail to reach a consensus as the December 31 deadline nears. The third presidential debate is on deck, how might markets react? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/kDSYzBDA3t https://t.co/80xL2Hyat7
  • The #Fed b/s hit a record high USD ~7.18T this week! Been awhile since I last did an update so here it is! I smoothened out analysis by using 4W moving averages You can see how into summer #SP500 growth 👇 as the b/s 👇 Since then it flipped until recent fiscal talk jitters https://t.co/4AESBo99dl
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/l705RWumj5 https://t.co/wySomzNGbm
Asia AM Digest: JPY, AUD Await Risk Trends as USD Reverses Gains

Asia AM Digest: JPY, AUD Await Risk Trends as USD Reverses Gains

2018-05-21 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Current Market Developments – USD Reverses Prior Gains

The US Dollar was initially on its way to close at a new high this year until it put in a reversal towards the second half of the day. Perhaps some profit taking weighed on the currency given a lack of crucial economic event risk. The greenback has been in an aggressive uptrend since the middle of April.

A speech from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker amplified USD weakness towards the end of the session. Mr. Parker said that he could back three more 2018 hikes if inflation accelerates. He then added that he sees no rush to increase rates and that he favors pausing hiking once they hit a neutral setting.

If you look at the spread between US 2-year and 10-year government bond yields (and at 30-year as well), they narrowed as Fed’s Harker spoke. This speaks to a flattening yield curve. Perhaps the markets interpreted his speech as being more favorable for near-term higher rates and not so much for the long run.

Prior Session Recap – Oil Rises and Sentiment Improves

Crude oil prices rallied to a new high this year so far thanks to a few developments. China, the second largest world consumer of oil, said that it will increase purchases of US energy imports as part of the de-escalating trade tensions with the world’s largest economy.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions probably increased the fear of supply disruption, further boosting the commodity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) was discussing with key oil-producing nations to make up for the loss in supply from Venezuela due to impending sanctions following a controversial election. Then, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the ‘strongest sanctions in history’ will be placed on Iran.

An improvement in sentiment thanks to de-escalating trade tensions between the US and China sent the S&P 500 and Dow Jones up 1.21% and 0.74% respectively on Monday. The anti-risk Japanese Yen succumbed to selling pressure while the higher-yielding Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed. The British Pound depreciated amidst political uncertainty.

A Look Ahead – Markets Eyeing Risk Trends Again

Another Asian session that is lacking in key economic events will probably put risk trends as the catalyst for market developments. If stocks continue climbing amidst the progress in US/China trade talks, then the Japanese Yen could weaken as the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars advance.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

DailyFX Economic Calendar

DailyFX Webinar CalendarCLICK HERE to register (all times in GMT)

DailyFX Webinar Calendar

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

NZD/USD IG Client Sentiment Index

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 65.6% of NZD/USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.91 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 22 when NZD/USD traded near 0.72643; price has moved 4.6% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.9% higher than yesterday and 9.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.9% higher than yesterday and 11.4% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Asia AM Digest: JPY, AUD Await Risk Trends as USD Reverses GainsAsia AM Digest: JPY, AUD Await Risk Trends as USD Reverses Gains

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. Gold Price Forecast: Less Hawkish FOMC to Fuel Larger Rebound by David Song, Currency Analyst
  2. USD Patterns Favor Weaker USDJPY; Driving Gold & EURUSD Higher by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head Forex Trading Instructor
  3. USD/JPY Breaks Higher Toward 2018 Highs, US-China Trade War Fears Cedeby Tyler Yell, Forex Trading Instructor
  4. Weekly Technical Perspective on AUD/USD by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  5. Bearish AUD/USD Momentum Continues to Unravel, RBA Rhetoric on Tapby David Song, Currency Analyst

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES