We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hey, traders 👋 do you want live AMAS with our analysts, market updates and tools to improve your trading strategy? Join us now on Instagram! 👉 https://t.co/pHGzVMI3tC https://t.co/AJHmBpX6gd
  • RT @malkudsi: Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Reverses Lower, What’s Next? More details in the link below: https://t.co/gcN0SU2…
  • BOJ's Kuroda: - BOJ economic forecasts are based on different assumptions vs those of the government - BOJ path for CPI ends up being higher than government projection #JPY
  • RT @YuanTalks: Hubei privince, the epicenternof the #coronavirus cases, has revised the number of new cases on Thursday upward to 631 from…
  • A brief $AUD recovery may have run out of steam, with the currency poised to break range support and test below 0.66 against its US counterpart. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/dqr2Vpbnjk https://t.co/HIq0i37RbY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.02%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tiK3d5TnFL
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/WGWYCqlCT1
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.27% France 40: -0.31% Wall Street: -0.41% US 500: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cOwOxBR3WQ
  • 🇯🇵 JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC), Actual: 0.0% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-21
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSMypC https://t.co/g8VnBPcgH2
Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

2018-05-16 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

A Look Ahead – Can Australia Jobs Report Offer Lasting AUD Response?

The Australian Dollar will look to April’s local jobs report during Thursday’s Asia trading session. However, follow through potential could be lacking if the data does not significantly alter RBA monetary policy expectations. This could be the case given that the central bank has reiterated earlier this week that they don’t see a strong case for a near-term policy adjustment from their meeting minutes.

Take the example of yesterday’s local wage price data which can be seen below on our economic calendar. There, a mixed outcome where yearly growth was in line with expectations while quarterly performance fell short sent AUD/USD more than 0.36% lower in the aftermath. The Reserve Bank of Australia envisions a lift in wages over time and the markets seemed to have expected no less.

DailyFX Economic Calendar (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

Despite its losses, the Aussie Dollar rose in the aftermath alongside both the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500. With that in mind, the sentiment-linked currency appears to be more interested in risk trends. On this front, ongoing developments on US/China trade talks, Italian government formation and Fed speak towards the end of the week could be notable catalysts for sentiment.

Join our Australia jobs report webinar for live coverage of the AUD/USD reaction!

Current Market Developments – GBP Higher on Brexit Update

The British Pound is cautiously higher against its major counterparts during the beginning hours of Thursday’s FX trading session. A report from The Telegraph revealed that the UK is said to tell the EU that it is prepared to stay in the customs union well beyond 2021. A key issue surrounding Brexit negotiations is a solution to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland (EU member state) and Northern Ireland (part of UK). The report said that the country will put forward a new “backstop” to avoid a hard border.

Prior Session Recap – Sentiment Rebounds and USD Losses Gains

After the US Dollar rose to a session high during the first half of the day, the greenback came tumbling back down to finish the day little changed. However, it was sharply lower against commodity currencies like the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand Dollars. All of which were the best performing majors during Wednesday’s session and rose at the expense of the greenback.

A pickup in stocks during the second half of the day sent those sentiment-linked currencies higher. The timing of these gains aligned with the release of US industrial production which beat estimates. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 rose as well as other benchmark indexes like the Nikkei 225. Perhaps encouraging signs that the US economy can remain resilient despite a rise in borrowing costs encouraged hopes and brightened the mood

One currency that underperformed across the board was the Euro which was weighed down by political risk. The drop occurred amidst a widening spread between German and Italian 10-year bond yields which reflects a rising risk premium in lending to Italy. Markets were unnerved as the country’s leading anti-establishment parties continued talks as they try to form a government. One of their demands may include that the ECB cancels EUR250b of Italian debt.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

DailyFX Webinar CalendarCLICK HERE to register (all times in GMT)

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 67.9% of NZD/USD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.12 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 22 when NZD/USD traded near 0.72044; price has moved 4.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 21.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.3% lower than yesterday and 16.9% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Asia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs ReportAsia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs ReportAsia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs ReportAsia AM Digest: AUD May Not Get Lasting Response to Jobs Report

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. US China Trade War & a Brief History of Trade Wars – 1900 until Present by the DailyFX Team
  2. EUR/USD Weakness to Persist as RSI Slips Back Into Oversold Territory by David Song, Currency Analyst
  3. Crude Oil Price Forecast: Saudi America in Play as US Exports Swellby Tyler Yell, Forex Trading Instructor
  4. NZD/USD Retains Bearish Series Ahead of PPI, 2018 Budget Statementby David Song, Currency Analyst
  5. Canadian Dollar Rate Forecast: CAD Jumps Above 50-Day Moving Averageby Tyler Yell, Forex Trading Instructor

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.