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EURUSD Continues to Break Lower; US CPI Looms

EURUSD Continues to Break Lower; US CPI Looms

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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EURUSD News and Talking Points

- A lack of any data over the next couple of days leaves EURUSD at risk of moving lower.

- Recent sentiment data highlights retail remains long of the pair.

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EURUSD Price Weakness Likely to Continue

A lack of any Euro-Zone hard data over the next two days leaves EURUSD liable to move back to lows seen at the end of last year as the downtrend seen in the last three weeks continues to hold. Recent data points show the Euro-Zone economy slowing down while inflation stubbornly refuses to move towards the central bank’s target. Monday’s data showed German factory orders missing expectations, Italian retail PMI falling off a cliff – 42.7 compared to a prior month’s reading of 48.0 – leaving the Euro-Zone retail PMI in contraction territory at 48.6 compared to March’s reading of 50.1.

On the other side of the pair, the USD may get another boost on Thursday when the latest inflation figures are released. The US consumer price index is expected to edge higher – to 2.5% y-o-y from 2.4% - hardening expectations of another two US rate hike with an additional rate – making four in total this year – already nearing a 50/50 call according to market expectations. The US dollar index is currently trading at 92.61, a level last seen in late December, and 4% higher over the last three weeks.

The latest IG Client Sentiment Indicator also adds weight to a further fall in EURUSD with retail traders’ net-long positions higher compared to yesterday and last week. Download the free guide and see how the data can help you make more informed trading decisions.

The daily EURUSD chart remains weak with little in the way of support until the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.17095 before the November 7 swing low at 1.15540 comes into play. The pair are also trading below the 200-day moving average, currently at 1.20510. Short-term support may come from the relative strength indicator which is mired in extreme over-sold territory at 22.74. On the upside 1.20300 should cap any rally.

EURUSD Price Chart Daily Timeframe (August 2017 – May 8, 2018)

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What’s your opinion on the EURUSD? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at or via Twitter @nickcawley1

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.