We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.52%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 77.95%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lXYqxrSYOx
  • LIVE NOW! Analyst and Editor @MartinSEssex will discuss the most important events and themes that have driven market sentiment and will drive it in the days ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/181540619?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.47% Gold: 0.38% Oil - US Crude: -1.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ebwfouQlSh
  • Canadian Dollar Weekly Forecast: USD/CAD Reverses Lower, What’s Next? More details in the link below: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-cad/2020/02/18/Canadian-Dollar-Weekly-Forecast-USDCAD-Reverses-Lower-Whats-Next-MK.html?CHID=9&QPID=917714 https://t.co/EiVBMfDCrE
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.26% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.41% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.59% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FwpqfFNv0d
  • My weekly free webinar on market sentiment is coming up at half past the hour. Do join me if you can. You can sign up here: https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars?ref-author=essex&QPID=917711&CHID=9
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.40% US 500: -0.58% Germany 30: -0.64% Wall Street: -0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/XGUopzAPTp
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Analyst and Editor @MartinSEssex will discuss the most important events and themes that have driven market sentiment and will drive it in the days ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/181540619?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • LIVE NOW! Currency Strategist @PaulRobinsonFX will keep you updated with the latest movements and trends during the London session for the FX and CFDs Market here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/243785867?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/11:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/O3LqxISfjo
Australian Dollar Gains As RBA Looks To Higher Rates. Eventually

Australian Dollar Gains As RBA Looks To Higher Rates. Eventually

2018-05-04 02:03:00
David Cottle, Analyst
Share:

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, RBA AND CAIXIN PMI TALKING POINTS

  • The RBA sounded a modestly upbeat note
  • It said that rates would have to rise if the economic growth it expects is duly delivered
  • China’s private service sector had a good April

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment page

The Australian Dollar made modest initial gains Friday on an upbeat statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia which saw and inflation foreasts revised higher.

The central bank now sees inflation at 2% annualized this year on average, above the previous 1.75% call. Crucially this would take pricing power back within the 2-3% target band from its curent position just below it. The RBA tips 3.25% Gross Domestic Product growth by December and looks for the same next year.

It also said that higher interest rates would be appropriate at some point if the economy continues to improve as expected. However, the market still does not see any near-term rise in the record-low, 1.5% Official Cash rate with no increase priced in to futures contracts until well into 2019.

The RBA also said yet again that significant AUD appreciation would make growth and inflation targets harder to hit.

AUD/USD blipped higher in the aftermath of the report and is looking more comfortable above the 0.75 handle. That said it is doubtful that this report does anything to bring higher Australian rates closer.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, 5-Minute Chart

CHNA CAIXIN PMI SHOWS IMPROVEMENT

The currency continued to gain following the release of the Caixin snapshot of April’s private sector service activity in China. That Purchasing Managers Index came in at 52.9, above the 52.3 expected. Coupled with the manufacturing survey already released that made for a composite PMI of 52.3, well above the previous month’s 51.8. In the logic of PMIs any read above 50 signifies an expansion of activity.

All up this was another good survey for China’s economy, which seems to be weathering trade-war talk pretty well. The Australian Dollar can sometimes act as the markets’ favorite liquid China proxy thanks to Australia’s famed raw material export links to the world’s second-largest national economy. It may have done so to a limited extent in this case.

On its daily chart AUD/USD remains under extreme pressure. This is in part thanks to the gulf in interest-rate expectations between a Federal Reserve well on the monetary-tightening path and a Reserve Bank of Australia still on hold. The idea that the RBA is quietly pleased with current Australian Dollar weakness is probably also weighing.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

AUD/USD has found some support around the key lows of last December, which preceded its climb up to the peaks of February, 2018. However, should that support give way then the lows of last June around 0.7389 would come into focus for bears.

RESOURCES FOR TRADERS

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.