We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/T3eOx2Lw1X
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.63% Germany 30: 0.62% Wall Street: 0.28% US 500: 0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7P5zkqlgMm
  • The #Euro may retrace higher before resuming a selloff that brought the single currency to the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/6tE2Xibkiw https://t.co/vfFbt3Q7NT
  • LIVE NOW: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will analyze the cross-asset impact of geopolitical risks affecting markets in the week ahead. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • The $USD gained versus SGD and IDR despite a “risk-on” tone in markets, boosted by strong declines in the Euro. What is the week ahead for USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/MYR? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/3zCSbkEQ2c https://t.co/edBGpLGUPg
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.90% Silver: 0.52% Gold: 0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AGzdmphrrt
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: In this session, Currency Analyst @ZabelinDimitri will analyze the cross-asset impact of geopolitical risks affecting markets in the week ahead. https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • My trading video for today: 'Dow and Apple Bow to #Coronavirus While Dollar Drives Different $EURUSD,$USDJPY Paths' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/02/19/Dow-and-Apple-Bow-to-Coronavirus-While-Dollar-Drives-Diferent-EURUSDUSDJPY-Paths.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&CHID=9&QPID=917719
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.11% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/GhLoASjGfG
  • China reportedly mulling cash injections and mergers to aide local airlines adversely impacted by the #coronavirus outbreak -BBG
NZ Dollar at the Mercy of the Fed After Jobs Data Rally Fizzles

NZ Dollar at the Mercy of the Fed After Jobs Data Rally Fizzles

2018-05-02 00:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

TALKING POINTS - NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR, UNEMPLOYMENT, RBNZ

  • New Zealand Dollar briefly surges as Q1 data shows sharp wages increase
  • Gains unable to hold as markets digest participation drop, slower job growth
  • Spotlight on the FOMC rate decision as the RBNZ continues to be sidelined

Join a DailyFX webinar to track the impact of key economic data on currency trends!

The New Zealand Dollar briefly popped higher against its US counterpart after first-quarter labor market data crossed the wires. The move might have reflected a dramatic jump in wage inflation. Average hourly earnings jumped 1.1 percent from the prior quarter, topping bets calling for a meager 0.5 percent increase.

That might have inspired speculation that overall price growth will be pressured higher, bringing forward the likely timing of an RBNZ interest rate hike. The range of surprises on offer elsewhere in the data set proved less flattering however and the Kiwi slumped back in disappointment.

The unemployment rate fell to a near-decade low of 4.4 percent as economists envisioned but this came alongside an unexpected drop in the participation rate, suggesting it was an exodus from the labor force rather than a pickup in hiring that at work. Indeed, the on-year pace of job creation slowed more than projected.

NZ Dollar at the Mercy of the Fed After Jobs Data Rally Fizzles

As it stands, New Zealand Bank Bill futures imply a rate hike is coming no sooner than the middle of next year. OIS-implied measures go a step further, showing the priced-in probability of tightening this year has been steadily diminishing since early November.

In the meantime, the currency is likely to take its cues from US monetary policy. The Kiwi has shed over 5 percent in a mere two weeks as steepening Fed rate bets paved the way for the US Dollar to dislodge it as the highest-yielding in the G10 FX space.

Further still, the upward pressure exerted by Fed stimulus withdrawal on global borrowing costs has undercut scope for the RBNZ to follow. A slumping rates path implied in those same Bank Bill futures shows markets see the local central bank as content with let the FOMC do the heavy lifting, at least for now.

NZD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.