Consumer Confidence Rose in April, Despite Market Expectations
- The Confidence Board Sentiment Index rose from the previous month at 128.7 despite bearish market expectations
- The present and business conditions indices rose as well, though responses were fairly mixed
- US Dollar Index impact was limited as
The Conference Board’s,Consumer Confidence Index increased in April, after falling in March. The Index now came in at 128.7, from 127.0 in March. Markets were expecting the Index to fall again this month to 126. The Present Situation Index increased from 158.1 last month to 159.6 in April. Similarly, the Expectations Index improved from 106.2 last month to 108.1 this month. The Conference Board made note that this data reflects consumer sentiment as of April 12, the preliminary result cutoff date.
Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, stated that consumers rated “both business and labor market conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations also improved, with the percent of consumers expecting their incomes to decline over the coming months reaching its lowest level since December 2000 (6.0 percent).” She also reiterated that confidence levels remain strong “and suggest that the economy will continue expanding at a solid pace in the months ahead.”
Further results from the surveys are listed below:
- Consumers saying business conditions are “good”: 35.2% from 37.6%
- Consumers saying business conditions are “bad”: 11.3% from 13.3%
- Consumers claiming jobs are “plentiful”: 38.1% from 39.5%
- Consumers claiming jobs are “hard to get”: 15.2% from 15.7%
Overall, the sentiment concerning business conditions and job opportunities was mixed. Mention was made of recent trade disputes between global trade partners, including the US and China. Protectionism and fiscal stimulus may not be at the top of consumers’ minds just yet even though tariffs could put upward pressure on the prices of goods. To see the full Consumer Confidence Survey click here.
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Below is a list of economic releases that has had a limited impact on the US Dollar:
-USD Consumer Confidence Index (APR): 128.7 versus 126 expected, from 127.0 (revised lower from 127.7 previously)
- USD Conf. Board Present Situation (APR): 159.6 from 159.9 previous
- USD Conf. Board Expectations (APR): 108.1 from 106.2 previous
Chart 1: DXY 15-minute Chart (April 22 - 24, 2018)
The US Dollar Index rose by a few pips following the data. Otherwise, the reaction was limited. This is no coincidence considering consumers’ expectations were essentially unchanged from last month. At the time that this was written, DXY traded at 90.88.
--- Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.