Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Asia AM Digest: CHF Falls, JPY Not So Much. Japan Trade Data Due

Asia AM Digest: CHF Falls, JPY Not So Much. Japan Trade Data Due

Daniel Dubrovsky, Senior Strategist

To get the Asia AM Digest every day, SIGN UP HERE

The anti-risk Swiss Franc was overall the worst performing major on Tuesday as sentiment improved. It fell as the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 rose during the second half of the day. Meanwhile, the higher-yielding US Dollar outperformed while similar-yielding Australian and New Zealand Dollars didn’t do so well. With the latter two losing their yield advantage over the greenback, perhaps traders were more interested in the one which is more liquid.

The improvement in sentiment seemed to be attributed to more positive developments in US earnings. Netflix shares also rose as subscriber growth beat estimates. In addition, Fed commentary probably helped the ‘risk on’ environment. John Williams, who will be the next head of the New York Fed, said that he expects the US economy to continue improving.

One currency that was a standout on Tuesday was the Japanese Yen. While it was on the same path as the Swiss Franc, there was a spurt of gains during the middle of the session. That helped it end the day cautiously higher. This may have been due to reports that the US wants to see a trade pact with Japan from President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Larry Kudlow. This crossed the wires ahead of a meeting Trump had today with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Meanwhile the British Pound underperformed despite the lowest UK unemployment rate since 1975. This may have been due to average weekly earnings missing expectations. The markets have lately been more interested in wage growth as opposed to job gains.

Looking ahead, we will get March’s Japan trade balance report. The surplus is expected to rise, signaling that exports will outnumber imports. While this may not cause a significant reaction in the Japanese Yen, it may do so for ASEAN bloc currencies like the Malaysian Ringgit. This is because their respective countries have key trading relationships with Japan.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Asia Pacific (all times in GMT)

DailyFX Webinar CalendarCLICK HERE to register (all times in GMT)

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: EUR/JPY

CLICK HERE to learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index

Retail trader data shows 42.4% of EUR/JPY traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.36 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 09 when EUR/JPY traded near 131.51; price has moved 0.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.0% lower than yesterday and 1.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% lower than yesterday and 13.7% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

Five Things Traders are Reading:

  1. Ichimoku Charts That Matter: Havens Weaken While GBP, AUD Charge Ahead by Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor
  2. GBP/USD, S&P 500 Breakouts in Focus as USD, EUR/USD Remain in Range by James Stanley, Currency Strategist
  3. NZD/USD Price Analysis: Deeper Correction Underway? by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist
  4. Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Remains Robust Ahead of OPEC Meeting by Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor
  5. Bearish USD/JPY Series Takes Shape Despite Hawkish Fed Rhetoric by David Song, Currency Analyst

To get the Asia AM Digest every day, sign up here

To get the US AM Digest every day, sign up here

To get both reports daily, sign up here

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.