Sterling Talking Points:

  • UK real wages may turn positive for the first time in around a year.
  • The Bank of England will stay the course and increase rates by 0.25% in May.
  • There are 10 US Federal Reserve speakers this week.

The DailyFX Q2 Trading Forecast for GBP is now available.

How are Retail Traders Currently Positioned in GBPUSD and why does it matter?

Sterling – Stuck in a Holding Pattern Ahead of Data

The British Pound looks fully valued ahead of key wages, jobs and inflation data and will likely wait for all the releases to hit the screens before making its next move. With the likelihood that UK real wages will turn positive – inflation lower/average wages higher – traders will assess the impact of these releases ahead of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Meeting on May 10. The markets are currently pricing a 74% probability of a 0.25% rate hike, a level that normally means that an interest rate rise is on the way.

We will be covering the UK Inflation release on Wednesday from 09:15 am onwards.

A look at the charts confirm GBP strength against a range of currencies with additional drivers needed for further moves higher. Bank of England hawk Michael Saunders speaks at 09:30 GMT on Friday and may well provide a catalyst for further Sterling strength.

GBPUSD Four Hour Price Chart (March 1 – April 16, 2018)

Key UK Wages and Inflation Data Will Drive Sterling | Webinar

US Federal Reserve members are active this week with around 10 speakers on the slate at a variety of events over the week.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst.

You can contact the author via email at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.