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US AM Digest: CAD Gains on NAFTA Talks; AUD Quiet after RBA

US AM Digest: CAD Gains on NAFTA Talks; AUD Quiet after RBA

Justin McQueen, Analyst

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CAD: The Loonie is among the best performing G10 currencies amid concerns over NAFTA beginning to abate, which came after reports that President Trump is said to push for a deal in principle within 1-2 weeks. Subsequently, pressuring USD/CAD back through 1.29 and looking to make a test for 1.28. Elsewhere, CAD traders will be keeping an eye on the Canadian Jobs due out at the back end of the week.

JPY: Safe havens underperforming vs. the greenback despite market sentiment on the softer side amid the ongoing fears surrounding a trade war between the US and China, alongside, persistent weakness in the tech sector, which has taken US equities back down to the levels seen in early Feb. Mixed signals from BoJ Governor Kuroda led to notable fluctuations in the JPY, which strengthened to the mid-105s before retracing back above 106 after Kuroda stated that the central bank had been discussing an exit from current monetary policy, however, noted that easing will persist given that inflation remains distant from target.

AUD, NZD: Uneventful RBA meeting yet again with the central bank sticking to its neutral tone and continuing to take a ‘wait and see’ approach. AUD found a slight lift with the latest AIG Mfg. PMI jumping to a record 63.1. NZD has also seen a move in sympathy, while eyes will be on today’s Fonterra GDT auction, in which futures are pricing in a potential 1% decline in WMP prices.

DailyFX Economic Calendar: Tuesday, April 3, 2018 – North American Releases

US AM Digest: CAD Gains on NAFTA Talks; AUD Quiet after RBA

Very light economic schedule out of the US today with the only real highlights likely to be comments from Fed’s Kashkari (Non-Voter) and Brainard (Voter). As such, attention among investors will be placed towards the back-end of the week, whereby participants will digest the latest NFP figures (Exp. 189k), while aside from economic data points, investors will be looking out for any further escalation in regards to trade between China and the US.

DailyFX Webinar Calendar: Tuesday, April 03, 2018

US AM Digest: CAD Gains on NAFTA Talks; AUD Quiet after RBA

IG Client Sentiment Index Chart of the Day: USDJPY

US AM Digest: CAD Gains on NAFTA Talks; AUD Quiet after RBA

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 67.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.05 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 113.533; price has moved 6.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.4% lower than yesterday and 3.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 10.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Learn more about the IG Client Sentiment Index on the DailyFX Sentiment page

Five Things Traders are Reading

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  4. FTSE Technical Outlook – Resistance Keeps Focus Lower” by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
  5. How Significant Is the S&P 500 Breaking the 200-Day Moving Average? by John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist

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