News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Japanese #Yen Forecast: $USDJPY Breakout Imminent- #FOMC Levels - https://t.co/U5iFDDlWPT https://t.co/f1thUfTOg6
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: 78 counterparties take $1.240 trillion at Fed's fixed-rate reverse repo $USD $DXY https://t.co/IOcumNHCmc
  • here we go - starting right now https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 https://t.co/SBRIykorY8
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - Working with Congress on crypto would help - A large number of crypto investors could be harmed
  • Pre-FOMC US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/21/Pre-FOMC-US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EUR-USD-EURUSD-GBP-USD-GBPUSD-USD-JPY-USDJPY.html https://t.co/Vyj5hwVXpi
  • The big question is whether the Fed announces taper tomorrow or whether they punt that announcement to the November rate decision, waiting for employment data to improve to the point of ‘significant further progress. More market update from @JStanleyFX :https://t.co/tPoLyqNFc1 https://t.co/o3ES0KKlWr
  • SEC Chair Gensler: - The market is in a better position to absorb global shocks - Securities rules give the SEC great power over crypto
  • feels like we haven't had one of these in quite a while https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611 Pre-FOMC Price Action Setups, starting right at 1pm, top of the hour 1. USD PA setups 2. Evergrande worries 3. Stonks - fly or die? https://t.co/VF15XbuuJS
  • That all said, staying patient and not chasing is prudent here imo. Tomorrow will likely be better for assessing short-term directional bias (China markets open again following holiday, post-FOMC).
  • Also, S&P Global put out a report overnight that said China would likely step in to curb “far-reaching contagion” re: Evergrande. The House is scheduled to vote on a stopgap funding bill Tuesday, which might be alleviating some investor angst around the debt ceiling as well.
Australian Dollar Ready to Reverse After April RBA Rate Hold?

Australian Dollar Ready to Reverse After April RBA Rate Hold?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar steady after April’s RBA rate hold at 1.50 percent as anticipated
  • Patient central bank means the currency can focus on other important event risks
  • AUD/USD is struggling to keep pushing lower and downside momentum is fading

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Australian Dollar was steady after April’s RBA rate decision, however AUD/USD may be heading for a reversal in the near-term. As widely expected, the central bank left rates unchanged at 1.50 percent which marks the longest streak of unadjusted policy in the country’s history. Here is what it had to say.

The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to reiterate that an unchanged policy is consistent with meeting the CPI target and sustainable economic growth over time. In addition, Governor Philip Lowe repeated that inflation is likely to remain low for some time. Finally, the bank’s forecast for 2018 still calls for faster economic growth.

All in all, the RBA once again showed us that it is in absolute no rush to raise rates at the moment. Before the announcement, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 32.3% chance that one hike could be upon us by the end of the year. This is slowly but surely looking increasingly unlikely. With the status quo update now behind us, the Australian Dollar can now focus on upcoming domestic event risk and ever-present external ones.

Keep an eye out for this week’s local trade balance data. There, the surplus is expected to decrease to A$725m from A$1055m. Data out of the country has tended to underperform relative to expectations since mid-January. A downside surprise could hurt the Australian Dollar as it could open the door to a softer GDP outcome in the future.

Australian Dollar Ready to Reverse After April RBA Rate Hold?

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Stuck Above 0.7651

On a daily chart, AUD/USD has been struggling to push below 0.7651 which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. Interestingly, positive RSI divergence has emerged and it shows ebbing momentum to the downside. This could mean that prices may reverse in the future but confirmation will be needed.

If AUD/USD does end up turning higher, near-term resistance is the 61.8% level at 0.7743. A push above that exposes the resistance line of the falling wedge bullish pattern. If a breakout does occur, this could mean that the pair may keep climbing in a more substantial move.

On the other hand, prices may keep falling to near-term support which is the lower line of the wedge. Immediately following that is the long-term rising trend line that dates back to January 2016. A push below that exposes the December 10th low at 0.7501.

Australian Dollar Ready to Reverse After April RBA Rate Hold?

AUD/USD Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

To receive Daniel's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES